No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 VCU College Basketball prediction, preview (6:50pm ET on Thursday in Greenville, SC)
VCU is a hot upset pick in brackets and betting markets, but I think the Rams are getting a bit too much love here. VCU comes in hot, winning 16 of its last 17 games, ripping through A-10 play all the way through the conference championship. While the Rams looks solid from a metrics standpoint, they are not all that proven.
In the non-conference, VCU’s best win came over South Florida — a fellow mid-major that had to win its conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament and land an 11-seed. The Rams lost regular season matchups to Vanderbilt, NC State, Utah State (all of which made the NCAA Tournament) and New Mexico (a 1-seed in the NIT).
VCU has made some impressive tournament runs over the years, and that’s on the mind of the average college basketball fan. However, the Rams have lost in the first round the last four times they’ve made the field, including last year as an 11-seed. VCU was a trendy underdog pick in last season’s tournament, but lost by nine points to 6-seed BYU.
North Carolina will continue to be without its best player, Caleb Wilson. That has many eager to run with the upset here, but let’s keep in mind that the Tar Heels went on to win five of six games after Wilson broke his hand, including wins over tournament teams in Clemson and Louisville. While UNC has lost its last two games, it was the regular season finale on the road at No. 1 Duke, and a one-point loss in the ACC Tournament in a revenge spot for Clemson. However, North Carolina covered both of those games as an underdog to go 6-2 ATS since losing Wilson.
I don’t want to disrespect what has been a great season for VCU, but even without a top prospect in the NBA Draft, North Carolina still has a significant talent advantage in this game. Led by Seth Trimble and Henri Veesaar, I like the Tar Heels to advance.
