As it has for most of the season, the narrative surrounding the Milwaukee Bucks has centered around their relationship with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee, which will receive the worse of its and the New Orleans Pelicans’ first-round picks, wants to shut Antetokounmpo down for the season after he suffered a hyperextended knee, while Antetokounmpo naturally wants to suit up again.
Comparatively less drama surrounds the Bucks’ opponent tonight, the Utah Jazz. There are few questions as to Utah’s direction after the Jazz effectively shut down their five best players (Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, Jaren Jackson Jr., Walker Kessler, and Jusuf Nurkić) for at least a couple of weeks.
Utah, fresh off of a blowout loss last night to the Minnesota Timberwolves, will host the Bucks tonight at 9:10 p.m. ET at the Delta Center.
Besides Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee should be pretty healthy, as while Kevin Porter Jr. (knee) and Myles Turner (calf) are both questionable, Porter played in Tuesday’s loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the Jazz, the five aforementioned players are all out, and so are Isaiah Collier (hamstring) and Brice Sensabaugh (illness).
The Bucks are 6.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-245 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 229.5. Utah is +200 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this inter-conference matchup and offer a prediction.
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz preview, prediction
Milwaukee has had a rough start to March, going just 2-9 since February 27, though to be fair, one of those wins came against the Jazz. Antetokounmpo had played in six of the games, including both wins, but he left partway through the Bucks’ win on Sunday against the Indiana Pacers with knee and ankle injuries and didn’t return. Most of Milwaukee’s other role players have been inconsistent: Most Improved Player candidate Ryan Rollins’ three-point efficiency has dipped slightly, Porter has been in and out of the lineup and is prone to the occasional stinker, and Kyle Kuzma has had a single-digit scoring performance in three of his last four games.
The Jazz have been equally hapless since the All-Star break, going just 2-11 across that span, including 0-3 since George was shut down with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. Utah has given more opportunities to its young players, starting Cody Williams in every game since the All-Star break, and while his jumper hasn’t fallen, he at least had a 34-point effort against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. The Jazz have also emphasized the development of prized rookie Ace Bailey and Collier, both of whom (unlike Williams) figure to be in Utah’s potential playoff rotation next season.
Bucks at Jazz pick, best bet
Both of these teams’ absent players have had a significant impact. The Bucks’ offense has been 11.1 points per 100 possessions better with Antetokounmpo on the court than without him, an even bigger discrepancy than the Jazz’s net rating differential with and without Markkanen (plus-10.2). Utah’s defense could also be slightly better without Collier, who’s had an on-off impact worth negative-5.9 points per 100 possessions on that side of the ball. While the Jazz’s offense loses some scoring punch without George and Sensabaugh, both of those players have had comparatively little impact on the court this season, as George’s poor defense has negated his excellent offense.
Utah hasn’t been able to stop anyone as of late; last night, it gave up 147 points to the cellar-dwelling Kings. The Jazz have especially struggled with their interior defense, allowing a league-high 74.4% conversion rate on restricted-area tries since the All-Star break. To be fair, that won’t necessarily be the biggest issue against Milwaukee, which has struggled mightily to get downhill without Antetokounmpo, especially since the Bucks have also allowed the seventh-highest percentage at the rim since January 27 (a span in which Antetokounmpo has played just 162 minutes). But Utah doesn’t drive well, either, perhaps unsurprisingly ranking near the bottom of the league in both attempts and percentage in the restricted area since the All-Star break.
Neither team has been very good on the glass. Since January 27, Milwaukee has snagged just 48.6% of all available boards, the seventh-worst mark in the league, and while the Jazz have been slightly better than that, their rebounding percentage has slipped to 47.4% since Nurkić and Jackson played their final games on February 11. Utah should have an edge in transition, as while both teams have coughed up plenty of turnovers, the young Jazz have at least forced plenty of their own. Utah has also had a better foul differential than the Bucks as of late, as Antetokounmpo is the only player on that roster capable of getting to the line with regularity.
This game could turn into a shooting competition. Neither team does a good job defending the three-point line, as since the All-Star break, the Jazz have allowed the most wide-open threes and Milwaukee has allowed the second-most. A shooting contest should unequivocally favor the Bucks, who rank second in three-point percentage while Utah ranks 22nd. Milwaukee has also been somewhat better at generating wide-open threes than the Jazz have, and while their top two shooters by three-point percentage over expectation (Bobby Portis and Rollins) are both healthy, Utah’s only available qualified shooter is Bailey, who’s connected from deep at a rate 3.7 percentage points lower than expected.
Both of these teams are awful at most aspects of basketball, but while the Jazz’s young players all have balky jumpers, at least the Bucks can do that well, and since both teams take and allow a lot of threes, that factor will be extremely important tonight. Even Utah’s typically robust home-court advantage — the Delta Center sits nearly a mile above sea level — hasn’t been much of a factor this season, as the Jazz’s net rating is only 3.0 points per 100 possessions better at home. I’ll take Milwaukee to cover the spread.
