The Heat are hosting the Lakers on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Miami is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 242.5 points.
Let’s dive into my preview and pick.
Heat vs. Lakers Preview
The Heat are coming off a 136-106 loss to the Hornets on Tuesday. Losing by 30 points was embarrassing, but in Miami’s defense, the club was without Bam Adebayo (calf). The center is listed as probable and will return tonight, which is obviously huge for the Heat. Adebayo just made headlines with the second-highest scoring game in NBA history last week, with 83 points vs. the Wizards. While this historical performance is controversial among basketball fans, there’s no denying the impact Adebayo makes on a nightly basis.
The Kentucky product is one of the top two-way big men in the league. Adebayo is averaging 20.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.7 blocks per game, and he comfortably leads Miami in plus/minus this season. The Heat own a +8.0 net rating with Adebayo on the floor, compared to a -3.6 net rating with him off. Adebayo’s play has been one of the key’s to the Heat’s recent resurgence.
Since the All-Star break, Miami is 9-4 and the club ranks seventh in net rating. Tyler Herro is also playing much better, averaging 22.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game while shooting 50.8% from the field over this time. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) is questionable tonight, and the great bench player being out would be a loss for the Heat. However, this club is well coached and deep enough that Miami will still be in a strong position to get a home win tonight even if Jaquez Jr. sits. This season, the Heat are 23-12 at home.
The Lakers have also been playing very well since the All-Star break, with an 11-4 record and ranking eighth in net rating, only one spot behind the Heat. Los Angeles has won seven straight games and the team just beat the Rockets twice in a row in Houston. In last night’s win over the Rockets, Luka Doncic went off for 40 points, 10 assists and nine rebounds, while LeBron James had one of his best games in quite some time, scoring 30 points on a ridiculous 13-of-14 shooting.
Many were suggesting that the Lakers were better without James, as they won three straight with him inactive earlier this month, but those doubters have gone quiet, as Los Angeles has won four consecutive games since the 41-year-old returned. Austin Reaves is also healthy again and playing great, averaging 20.9 points per contest since the All-Star break. With Doncic, James and Reaves active this season, the Lakers are 15-7.
The Lakers defeated Miami 130-120 in Los Angeles back in early November, but the Heat are playing much better nowadays, and the main concern for the Lakers tonight is that they are playing their second game in two nights after a hard fought win in Houston on Wednesday. Los Angeles is just 6-5 on the second night of back-to-back sets this season, and this is the first time the club is playing with no rest since the All-Star break. The last time the Lakers played their second game in two nights was in early February. That night, they lost to the Spurs at home 136-108, so it will be interesting to see how this ascending Los Angeles squad fares tonight.
Heat vs. Lakers Pick, Best Bet
While the Lakers’ recent play has been impressive, playing their second game in two nights is a notable disadvantage, and the Heat on their home floor with Adebayo back are a tough opponent.
Miami should snap Los Angeles’ seven-game win streak and cover this 3.5-point spread. This season, the Heat are 41-28 ATS overall and 21-9 ATS coming off a loss, both of which are league-best records. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 7-9 ATS as away underdogs.
