The 12 vs. 5 matchup is always rife for a March Madness upset. Just ask McNeese State, who beat Clemson to kick off last season’s NCAA Tournament. The Cowboys (28-5, 19-3) are back, having won the Southland Conference for a second straight year. Their reward? SEC Tournament runner-up Vanderbilt (26-8, 11-7), arguably the most under-seeded squad on Selection Sunday. Can the Commodores bounce back this afternoon against a battle-tested opponent?
Vanderbilt enters as 11.5-point favorites (-112) over McNeese State. The total is set at 150.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:15 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Thursday’s game between the Cowboys and the Commodores.
McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt prediction, preview
The Cowboys as a program are no stranger to March. Still, this is a revamped roster; head coach Will Wade is now the architect of NC State. In his place, first-year head coach Bill Armstrong has done a terrific job taking over. Much like last season’s squad, McNeese State thrives on defense. The team is only giving up 66.5 points per game this season, 24th-best in the nation. Opposing offenses take an average of 19.2 seconds per possession; that’s the longest mark in college basketball.
With that being said, the other end of the floor is no guarantee for this group. The Cowboys are shooting 31.6% from three-point range, 299th among all 365 Division I schools. As a whole, that alone doesn’t make this a bad offense. Still, a lack of floor spacing isn’t ideal, especially against a high-major opponent. It’s a three-headed scoring attack for McNeese State: Larry Johnson (17.5 PPG), Tyshawn Archie (14.3 PPG) and Javohn Garcia (12.0 PPG). Garcia is the only member of that trio to play for last season’s team. No other players on this roster are averaging double-digit points per game.
This is a true battle between oil and water. Vandy is all about pushing the pace, relying on one of the sport’s elite back courts. Tyler Fuller is faster than the speed of light, punishing bigger, slower defenders on a routine basis. The sophomore has notched 19.1 points and 5.1 assists per game this season. Fuller is joined by two-way menace Duke Miles (16.5 PPG, 4.5 AST). The latter leads the SEC with 2.7 steals per game. Down low, forward Tyler Nickel (13.2 PPG) is another name to watch.
If there’s a knock on the Commodores, it’s their lack of rebounding. That didn’t haunt them during wins over Florida and Tennessee. Still, there’s some fear that a bigger, stronger foe could dominate the glass. That’s unlikely to be the Cowboys, who rank 229th on KenPom in average height (77.1″). However, they do wield the nation’s 49th-best offensive rebounding rate (35.0%). A few timely boards to extend possessions could help turn Thursday’s matchup into a slog. With that being said, McNeese State’s pressure-heavy approach could backfire against Fuller and Miles. Vanderbilt has a minuscule 13.3% offensive turnover rate, 11th-lowest in the sport.
McNeese State vs. Vanderbilt pick, best bet
Both teams are going to have to adapt in order to earn a win here. McNeese State is unlikely to force quality ball handlers into sloppy mistakes. Vanderbilt could have a tougher time getting to the rim against a stout defense. While I expect the Commodores to earn a win, it won’t come easy. The Cowboys, and their knack for extending possessions, have what it takes to turn this into an ugly affair. Back the underdogs to cover on Thursday.
Best Bet: McNeese State +11.5 (-112)
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