The 2026 NCAA Tournament gets underway on Thursday, March 19 with 16 matchups across college basketball. Here are a few games in particular that I’m looking at on the March Madness slate to place some best bets.
No. 9 TCU vs. No. 8 Ohio State (12:15pm ET in Greenville, SC)
TCU opened as a 4.5-point underdog and quickly took money, moving the spread down to 2.5 on Sunday night. The Horned Frogs are just 4-10 straight up when priced as the underdog this season, but have taken down some elite teams. TCU has wins during Feast Week over Florida and Wisconsin on consecutive days on a neutral floor. It also defeated Iowa State at home, Texas Tech on the road, and took Michigan and Kansas down to the wire multiple times.
Ohio State can make similar claims, though, also defeating Wisconsin, Purdue and pushing Michigan to its limit. Both teams enter the NCAA Tournament hot, with the Buckeyes having a four-game winning streak snapped in a close game against the Wolverines in the Big Ten Tournament. TCU has won six of seven, with the loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament.
TCU’s offense can be concerning at times, ranking 81st on KenPom in offensive efficiency. The Frogs finished top-30 in defensive efficiency, although the numbers suggest the defense has fallen off a bit over the last month. The same metrics suggest Ohio State has been constantly improving on both sides of the ball. The Buckeyes finished the season ranked 17th in offensive efficiency and just outside the top-50 in defensive efficiency. But over the last month, Ohio State has ranked 14th in offensive efficiency and jumped up to 35th in defensive efficiency. TCU is just 47th in defensive efficiency over the same span.
The seeding here correctly suggests that these two teams have had similar seasons, so I want to put extra stock in how each team has looked recently. The recent numbers favor Ohio State, and are likely why the initial number opened high at 4.5. I’ll back the Buckeyes on a short moneyline price.
CBB Pick: Ohio State ML (-140)
No. 9 Saint Louis vs. No. 8 Georgia (9:45pm ET in Buffalo, NY)
The Billikens got off to a scorching start to the season, going 24-1 with the lone loss by a single-point on a neutral floor to Stanford. From mid-February on, Saint Louis did not appear to be the same team. The Billikens finished the season going just 4-4 over its last eight games, and went just 2-6 ATS.
Saint Louis has respectable metrics over the course of the season, finishing 51st in offensive rating and 42nd in defensive rating on KenPom. However, if we look at the last month, The Bilikens have fallen off a cliff, ranking 107th in offensive efficiency and 156th in defensive efficiency. During that same time span, Georgia’s offense ranks third in the country in offensive efficiency.
The Bulldogs are well tested on a nightly basis in the SEC in ways that Saint Louis is not in the A-10. Georgia has speed, size and athleticism that should make it a very difficult matchup for the Billikens. Saint Louis simply hasn’t had a challenge like the Bulldogs yet this season. Its toughest games have been a one-point win over Santa Clara and a one-point loss to Stanford (both on a neutral floor in November), and a road win at VCU — which is the only other time this season the Billikens have been underdogs.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 16-3 when favored this season, and have wins as an underdog over Alabama, Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Missouri. I’ll back the team with more talent and far more accomplishments under its belt.
CBB Pick: UGA ML (-135)
No. 11 VCU vs. No. 6 UNC (6:40pm ET in Greenville, SC)
VCU is a hot upset pick in brackets and betting markets, but I think the Rams are getting a bit too much love here. VCU comes in hot, winning 16 of its last 17 games, ripping through A-10 play all the way through the conference championship. While the Rams looks solid from a metrics standpoint, they are not all that proven.
In the non-conference, VCU’s best win came over South Florida — a fellow mid-major that had to win its conference tournament to get into the NCAA Tournament and land an 11-seed. The Rams lost regular season matchups to Vanderbilt, NC State, Utah State (all of which made the NCAA Tournament) and New Mexico (a 1-seed in the NIT).
North Carolina will continue to be without its best player, Caleb Wilson. That has many eager to run with the upset here, but let’s keep in mind that the Tar Heels went on to win five of six games after Wilson broke his hand, including wins over tournament teams in Clemson and Louisville. While UNC has lost its last two games, it was the regular season finale on the road at No. 1 Duke, and a one-point loss in the ACC Tournament in a revenge spot for Clemson. UNC covered both of those games as an underdog to go 6-2 ATS since losing Wilson.
I don’t want to disrespect what has been a great season for VCU, but even without a top prospect in the NBA Draft, North Carolina still has a significant talent advantage in this game. Led by Seth Trimble and Henri Veesaar, I like the Tar Heels to advance.
