Idaho is one of the better stories in the bracket. The Vandals are 21-14, have won five straight, ripped off four wins in four days to steal the Big Sky tournament, and are back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1990. Houston is the opposite kind of March team—28-6, battle-tested by a No. 7 strength of schedule, fresh off a run to the Big 12 title game, and sitting as a No. 2 seed. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s March Madness college basketball game between the Houston Cougars and the Idaho Vandals.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Houston vs. Idaho prediction, preview
Idaho averages 78.7 points per game, but that came against a much softer menu of opponents, with a near-neutral SRS of -0.07 and a 202nd-ranked past schedule strength. Houston, meanwhile, allows just 62.9 points per game, holds opponents to 40.0% shooting and 32.1% from three, and forces 13.7 turnovers per game. The efficiency matchup sharpens the same point: Idaho’s offense sits at 1.073 points per possession, while Houston’s defense sits at 0.935 allowed per possession. That is a nasty step-up for a 15-seed whose best work all year came in a very different tax bracket.
Idaho’s leading scorer is Jackson Rasmussen at 13.9 points per game, with Kolton Mitchell at 3.9 assists, Brody Rowbury at 5.2 rebounds, and Isaiah Brickner giving them another 12.1 points per game off the bench. Those are respectable numbers, but they do not describe the kind of high-end shot creation that usually drags a total upward against Houston. The Cougars have more scoring talent and more ways to get to the high 70s—Kingston Flemings at 16.4 points and 5.3 assists, Emanuel Sharp at 15.3 points, Chris Cenac Jr. at 7.5 rebounds, and Milos Uzan at 11.1 points and 4.0 assists—but that balance actually helps the under more than the over. Houston can score efficiently without turning the game into a sprint.
Recent form keeps pointing the same way. Idaho’s last five results are all wins—85-81, 68-45, 78-74, 81-68, and 77-66—but that run came entirely inside the Big Sky. Houston’s recent scoreboard looks much more like the environment that matters for a tournament total: 77-64, 82-75, 73-66, 69-47, and 74-79. Even the highest-scoring game in that stretch barely threatened tonight’s number. The shape of those games is controlled, defense-forward, and very comfortable with an opponent living in the 40s, 50s, or low 60s.
Idaho vs. Houston pick, best bet
Idaho does get to the line, and Houston is not completely stainless there—opponents are averaging about 20.4 free-throw attempts per game. If the Vandals live at the stripe and Houston gets loose late with the game in hand, that is the path to an ugly over beat. But even that warning comes with limits. Idaho’s conference-tournament scoring was volatile possession to possession—it turned the ball over 22 times in one of those wins—and Houston’s defensive ecosystem is built to turn clean-enough mid-major offense into rushed drives, late-clock shots, and empty trips. The more I look at it, the side still feels exposed to backdoor chaos, while the total stays tied to a much simpler question: can Idaho really get to 60-plus in this environment? I do not think that is the likeliest outcome.
That is why the bet is Under 138.5. Not because Houston cannot score; it can. Not because Idaho is incapable of offense; it clearly is not. But because this game fails the loser scoring-floor test, and that is the cleanest truth on the board. Houston has the defense, the schedule proof, and the recent game shape of a team that can keep a 15-seed in the mid-50s without needing to press for 90 itself. I think the Cougars control the game, rebound enough to keep Idaho from stealing cheap second chances, and drag the Vandals into a much harder exam than anything they just saw in the Big Sky.
Final score: Houston 77, Idaho 55.
Best bet: Houston vs. Idaho u138.5 total points (-115)
Tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
I’ve included this play in a parlay I’ve posted here in The CBB Board, the betting group where you can find DKN Analyst plays each and every day. It’s free. You just join and tail bets directly from your DraftKings app and get byte-sized analysis (< 1000 characters!) from myself and my colleagues. I encourage you to check it out.
