The NCAA Tournament bracket has been established and every eligible team has its pathway set in stone. Facing off in the East region of the bracket, the top-seeded Duke Blue Devils will battle with the 16th-seeded Siena Saints.
Looking at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Duke enters as a 28.5-point favorite in the opening round matchup. Siena holds +3500 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 135.5.
Duke vs. Siena prediction, preview
Duke enters the NCAA Tournament as the top overall seed with a 32-2 record on the year. The Blue Devils enter on an 11-game winning streak and have won 21 of their last 22. Their two losses came against North Carolina and Texas Tech. On the season, Duke has gone 19-15 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 22 of the 34 matchups.
Jon Scheyer has wasted no time reshaping Duke into a college basketball powerhouse. The Blue Devils rank 48th nationally in scoring, seventh in offensive rating, 25th in field-goal percentage, and 116th in three-point percentage. Defensively, they sit third in opponent scoring, third in defensive rating, ninth in opponent field-goal percentage, and 26th in opponent three-point percentage.
Star freshman Cameron Boozer leads the Blue Devils with 22.5 points, an ACC-leading 10.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game. Isaiah Evans adds 14.9 points and 3.1 rebounds of his own, and Patrick Ngongba II contributes 10.7 points and six rebounds. Unfortunately, Duke has been bitten by the injury bug, and both Ngnongba and starting point guard Caleb Foster are battling injuries which make their status uncertain for the NCAA Tournament. Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden Boozer, adds 7.1 points and 2.8 assists. Dame Sarr, Maliq Brown, and Nikolas Khamenia round out most of the team’s notable rotation players.
The Siena Saints earned a trip to the NCAA Tournament by winning the MAAC Championship. They hold a 23-11 overall record on the season and will carry a four-game winning streak into this matchup. On the season, Siena has gone 20-14 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 23 of its 34 games played.
Gerry McNamara’s squad leans on its defensive identity for success. Defensively, the Saints are holding teams to the 15th-fewest points per game at 61st in defensive rating. This group ranks 294th in the country in scoring and 184th in offensive rating. They attack almost exclusively inside the three-point arc, ranking 348th in the country in three-point attempts per game, but take good care of the basketball and prefer to play at a slow pace.
Gavin Doty headlines the team’s production with 17.9 points and 7.0 rebounds per game. Justice Shorts adds 13.2 points and a team-high 4.4 assists, while Francis Folefac is the lone other player to average in double figures with 11.1 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. Siena leans on a thin rotation, with Riley Molvey and Brendan Coyle also playing significant roles. Each logged 36+ minutes in the conference championship victory, and they likely will not go deeper than six in this matchup unless they absolutely have to. Tasman Goodrick led the team in rebounding, but is out for the season due to a knee injury, and Curtis Jones has some concerns due to a back issue.
Duke vs. Siena pick, best bet
Siena ranks 348th out of the 365 qualifying D1 teams in strength of schedule, which clouds the outlook for this game a bit. This will be their toughest matchup all season by a wide margin. They played just one Quad 1 matchup this year, which was an 81-60 loss to Indiana, and it took place on December 22nd.
There is no debate that Duke is the better team, but 28.5 points is a lot to cover. The Blue Devils lead the country with a +19.1 average margin of victory and nine of their 32 victories came by 30+ points this season. On the other side of the matchup, the 21-point loss to Indiana is Siena’s worst loss of the year and the only time the Saints have lost by more than 14 points.
Ultimately, I am backing Siena to keep this matchup competitive and within the 28.5-point spread. The Saints are 20-14 against the spread this season and 4-1 against the spread when playing at a neutral site. Duke will be their stiffest test of the season, but the Siena defense has looked impressive all year. This will be vital to keeping them in the game, and there is a level of pride on this roster that should be expected to shine through even if they are down double digits well into the second half.
They will not fully feel it in this matchup, but the absence of Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster is a major storyline to note for the Blue Devils. There is still too much top-end talent on this Duke team to be concerned about an upset in the opening round. But not having Ngongba II and Foster limits its National Championship outlook and provides a bit more reason for pause on these types of monstrous spreads.
Siena has not lost by 30+ points in any game this year, and even with Duke being its most difficult opponent, I don’t expect this to change. This is not the type of opening matchup where there is true upset potential, but this massive spread is too large for my liking. Whether they keep it competitive throughout or have a final burst for a backdoor cover, count on the Saints bringing their best effort through the final minutes. The Saints play with a high level of pride, make opponents work for every basket, and have been playing their best basketball at the right time. The 28.5-point spread is too significant for my liking, so I am backing Siena to cover this massive number.
