A couple of Power Four teams will hope to snag one of the final 64 spots in the Women’s NCAA Tournament field when the Arizona State Sun Devils and Virginia Cavaliers go head-to-head in a First Four matchup on Thursday night.
Taking a look at the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, the Cavaliers are a small 2.5-point favorite with -148 odds on the Moneyline. The Sun Devils are +124 as an underdog while the total O/U is set at 126.5 points.
Below is my preview, pick and prediction for Thursday’s Arizona State vs. Virginia First Four matchup.
Arizona State vs. Virginia prediction, pick
The Arizona State Sun Devils had quite the turnaround this season, outperforming expectations many had for a new head coach and a largely new-look roster. After finishing with a 10-22 record and 15th of 16 in the Big 12 last season, the Sun Devils went through a revival this year in head coach Molly Miller’s first season. They finished ninth in the conference with a 24-10 record, all behind a team with just three returners and 10 new players.
Despite a fresh roster, Arizona State was able to have its success by putting together a strong defensive identity, ranking fifth in the Big 12 giving up 60.6 points a game and allowing opponents to shoot just 38.3% from the field. The Sun Devils also turned teams over 19.4 times a game, third in the conference.
The Sun Devils carried that defensive prowess to the Big 12 Tournament, where they had a solid showing, winning two before bowing out in the quarterfinal. In its three games, Arizona State held teams to 62 points a game on 39% shooting, generating 16.3 turnovers in that time as well.
The Cavaliers also improved upon their season from a year ago, though not nearly to the amount as their First Four opponent. Virginia concluded the 2024-25 season 10th in the ACC with a 17-15 record. With a number of returning starters, a handful of new faces and fourth-year head coach Amaka Agugua-Hamilton, the ‘Hoos ended the year eighth in the ACC with a 19-11 overall record.
Though the Cavaliers are one of the stronger teams in the ACC offensively, ranking fifth averaging 75.3 points a game behind Kymora Johnson’s 19 points a game, their defense isn’t to be ignored either. Virginia is allowing just 64.3 points a game on a 37.9% field-goal percentage, ninth and fourth in the conference, respectively. The ‘Hoos are also at the top of the conference in both blocks and rebounds, averaging 6.7 and 42.5 a game.
Virginia struggled coming down the stretch of the season, losing its final three, with its defense being the culprit of that. The Cavaliers gave up 76 points a game on 47.3% shooting in those outings, dropping in blocks and rebounds as well with 3.3 and 35, respectively, a game.
Arizona State vs. Virginia Best Bet
Despite the Sun Devils having a better record and stronger finish to the season, my lean is still on the Cavaliers picking up the win to advance past the First Four with Virginia’s returning team and Arizona State’s first-year head coach.
However, I’m betting the under 126.5 points for the matchup between these two teams. These are two defensively sound teams, and though the ‘Hoos struggled to hold teams at the end of the season, those ACC teams were much stronger offensively than the Sun Devils, who average just 66.5 points a game. Arizona State and Virginia should play a tight, defensive matchup to keep this game from going over the total.
