Before we get into the first round of the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament, we’ve got a handful of teams fighting for their chance to dance. Stephen F. Austin and Missouri State face off in the Women’s First Four matchups, with the Lady Bears entering as 2.5-point favorites and a total set at 138.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Let’s dive into my prediction and pick for Wednesday’s First Four matchup, tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Stephen F. Austin vs. Missouri State prediction
Tonight will mark the third meeting in program history between the Ladyjacks and Lady Bears, but this time, the stakes are higher. Stephen F. Austin enters the tournament fresh off its second straight Southland Conference title, and 18th overall, with Myka Perry leading the charge with 21 points and six rebounds in 37 minutes in the title game. Perry is just one piece of a deep scoring roster, as five different Ladyjacks average double figures on the season. Guard Ken Roseby has been SFA’s top scorer, averaging 13.2 PPG and 6.7 RPG, while Harmaine Dominguez and Ashlyn Traylor-Walker both chip in 12+ PPG.
As for Missouri State, the Lady Bears enter tonight’s game as Conference USA Tournament champions, upsetting not one, not two, but three top seeds on their way to taking down No. 1 Louisiana Tech for the crown. Guard Kaemyn Bekemeier has been the driving force, averaging 17.4 PPG and 8.2 RPG in the regular season, while Lainie Douglas adds 13.7 PPG and 6.2 RPG. With three players averaging 6+ rebounds per game, it’s clear the Lady Bears can dominate the glass. However, playmaking is where they struggle. Maycee James leads the team with just 2.7 assists per game, though she contributes defensively with 2.5 steals per contest.
A key factor in tonight’s matchup will be three-point shooting. SFA’s Dominguez ranks among the nation’s best, knocking down 2.9 threes per game, and is coming off a scorching performance in her last outing where she shot 71.4% from deep and hit five triples. Traylor-Walker has been even more efficient, shooting 44.4% from beyond the arc, but it’s Dominguez who steals the show as the volume shooter. Missouri State, on the other hand, doesn’t have a player shooting above 37% from deep, with much of its offense relying on Bekemeier attacking the rim and creating her own looks.
Stephen F. Austin vs. Missouri State pick
71% of bets are on Missouri State to win while just 29% are on Stephen F. Austin, and tonight, I’m fading the public.
Lean: Stephen F. Austin ML
