Four seasons ago, the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics faced off in the NBA Finals. That series, which Golden State won in six games, will likely go down as the last title of the Warriors’ dynasty and the playoff lick that spurred Boston’s 2024 title. Now, the teams’ fortunes look very different: Golden State looks likely to miss the playoffs with Stephen Curry’s injury status an open question, and the Celtics are surprising contenders and have ramped Jayson Tatum back to full health.
The teams will face off for the second and final time this season tonight at 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Warriors have a long injury report, with Stephen Curry (knee), Seth Curry (adductor), Jimmy Butler III (ACL tear), Al Horford (soleus), and Moses Moody (wrist) out and LJ Cryer (hamstring) and Quinten Post (foot) questionable. Boston’s is short; only Nikola Vučević (finger) and two-way player John Tonje are out.
The Celtics are 11.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-675 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 217.5. Golden State is +490 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ve broken down my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s Finals rematch.
Jayson Tatum 25+ Points (+156)
Tatum hasn’t yet reached the 25-point threshold in his first five games of the season, but he’s gotten close several times, scoring at least 20 in each of his last four games. Despite a balky jumper, he’s hardly shown any signs of rust after his injury, averaging career highs in free-throw percentage, rebounding percentage, and steal percentage. The fact that he’s played at least 32 minutes in each of his last two games, just 10 months after suffering a torn Achilles, is remarkable, and his three-point efficiency is likely to improve as the season goes on.
Meanwhile, Golden State’s defense simply hasn’t been very good, as injuries have ravaged its personnel. Since Stephen Curry’s last game at the end of January, the Warriors rank just 22nd in defensive rating, and though their relatively slow pace means they’ve simply allowed the 15th-most points, that’s still far from the elite mark that Golden State teams are used to. The Warriors have arguably gotten lucky that their defensive marks are even as decent as they are, given that opponents have converted their wide-open threes at the league’s third-lowest rate across that span. Tatum hasn’t been efficient on such shots in his first five games, but he’d connected at at least a 40% rate in each of his previous eight seasons.
Gui Santos 3+ Three-Pointers Made (+156)
Santos has had a key role this season, especially after Butler tore his ACL on January 19. Since then, Santos’ minutes have jumped from 11.3 per game to 29.2 and his made threes from 0.6 to 1.8. He’s been firing away from deep with reckless abandon as of late, canning at least three triples in three of his last four games, including a four-for-six performance in an 18-point effort against the Washington Wizards on Monday. Since he became a starter after Curry’s injury, he’s also increased his efficiency, making his triples at a 35.7% clip.
Boston has an elite defense, so there aren’t many weak spots for opponents to exploit. This season, the Celtics have had top-six marks in opponent points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, but they have given up the fifth-most three-point attempts, including the fifth-most catch-and-shoot looks and the eighth-most wide-open looks. Since the start of February, Santos ranks fourth on the team in wide-open triples and has converted at a solid 38.6% clip. He’s also made 39.6% of his catch-and-shoot looks across that span.
Neemias Queta 10+ Rebounds (+100)
Queta has been a major positive surprise this season, averaging 9.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting 63.8% from the field. In fact, at plus-6.6, he’s had the second-biggest positive on-off impact of any Boston player with at least 1,000 minutes this season. As of late, he’s played an even larger role, recording double-digit rebounds in five of his eight games this month, including a monstrous 27-point, 17-rebound effort against the Philadelphia 76ers on March 1. He should continue to play major minutes with Vučević sidelined.
Golden State just doesn’t have much size. Curry has always been an excellent rebounder for his limited stature and athleticism, and since his injury, the Warriors rank just 26th in rebounding percentage and 25th in opponent rebounds per game. Even Kristaps Porziņġis might not help; despite his seven-foot-three frame, Golden State has had a worse rebounding percentage in his 108 minutes, and the Celtics were also more impactful on the glass last season with him off the floor. Queta only had six boards in his previous game against the Warriors, but he did have 10 in just 20 minutes in 2023-24.
