Miami OH vs. SMU College Basketball prediction, preview
The NCAA Tournament selection committee rewarded Miami OH for its 31-0 regular season, but after losing its first game in the MAC Tournament to UMass, they are going to make the Redhawks prove they belong by playing in the First Four. By the metrics, this team simply does not belong in the field as an at-large bid — Miami ranks 93rd on KenPom, finishing 70th in offensive efficiency and 153rd in defensive efficiency.
I agree with the notion that a 31-0 regular season deserves a bid. While the schedule isn’t the Redhawks’ fault, they could be in for a rude awakening against SMU. Miami’s best non-conference game was back in December against Wright State, and the toughest opponent overall was against Akron in MAC regular season play.
The Redhawks have only been an underdog of 6.5 points once this season, and that came in a road game against Bowling Green … not exactly ACC competition. Some have bought into the hype that this is a legit team, others are saying it is a lucky team. As is usually the case, I feel its a bit of both. The bounces definitely went Miami’s way this season, but the Redhawks also have a skill of winning close games. In order to use that skill, the game has to be close, and I don’t think this one will be close.
The Redhawks have been losing steam down the stretch, winning each of their last three regular season games by two points. Then they finally lost a close game to UMass in the conference tournament, now entering the NCAA Tournament 0-4 ATS in their last four outings.
SMU has not been playing its best basketball of the season, losing five of its last six. But the Mustangs have been battling some injuries, and it looks like they will have their stars available to play on Wednesday night in Dayton. Despite the injuries, SMU still enters the NCAA Tournament ranked 26th in offensive efficiency on KenPom. While the defense hasn’t been impressive at 91st on KenPom, it’s still better than Miami.
The simple handicap in this game is that the Redhawks just haven’t seen a team anything close to SMU this season. The size and athleticism of the Mustangs will play a huge role, and I have a tough time envisioning Miami being able to get many stops. As you would expect, SMU should also be able to dominate the glass in this game, ranking 59th in rebound rate. Miami ranks just 171st by the same metrics.
The Redhawks have been a great story this season, but had they played a couple of teams like SMU during the regular season, they’d likely have lost those games and not been in this position. We’ll find out if they are for real on Wednesday night, but the numbers say they are not.
I’m backing SMU a handful of ways in this one — laying the points, playing the double result (to lead at halftime and win the game) and pairing SMU with another one of my favorite tournament plays of UCLA on the moneyline on Friday.
