March Madness has arrived. One of the best stretches in sports begins on Tuesday night with the First Four. The Round of 64 will begin on Thursday afternoon. Around the country, everyone is filling out brackets and picking their national title winner. However, one of the best ways to get in on the action this March is with a survivor pool.
The $1 Million Men’s College Basketball Tournament Survivor pool is now live on DraftKings. There is no entry fee. Every DraftKings user can get one free entry to this survivor pool, with $1,000,000 in prizes up for grabs.
Read my piece on March Madness survivor pool strategy here.
Here are my best picks and teams to avoid for both days of the Round of 64.
March Madness Survivor Pool First Round Strategy
Like in any survivor pool, you can only use a team once throughout March Madness. So, teams like Duke, Arizona and Michigan that are big favorites to make it to the Final Four should not be wasted in the first round. The ideal first-round picks for this March Madness survivor pool are teams that you are confident will win their opening-round matchup, but might not make it much further than that. Teams with favorable Round of 64 matchups but tricky Round of 32 matchups would be the ideal choice for this round.
First Round Survivor Best Pick for Thursday 3/19 and Friday 3/20
Arkansas over Hawaii
The Arkansas Razorbacks are coming off a great run to the SEC Tournament title. Darius Acuff Jr. showed why he is the best player in the SEC, leading his team with 30 points in the conference title game. Arkansas has everything you want in a team that could go on an NCAA Tournament run. They are playing their best basketball down the stretch, having won seven of their past eight games. The Razorbacks also have an elite guard, who can get buckets late in games and create for his teammates. They play at a blistering pace, ranking 20th in adjusted tempo. Alabama showed that the high-pace tempo can work in March, making it to the Final Four last year.
Hawaii ranks 211th in the nation in offensive rating and will not be able to keep up with Arkansas. However, I’m fine with using the Razorbacks this early on because they have a potentially very tough matchup with Wisconsin in the Round of 32.
Kansas over Cal Baptist
Kansas is an ideal pick for the first round of this March Madness survivor pool. The Jayhawks have one of the most experienced coaches in the tournament, Bill Self. They also rank 10th in the nation in defensive rating, with elite discipline on that end of the floor. That is a good recipe for avoiding an upset in the opening round. Cal Baptist ranks 191st in the nation in offensive rating and should massively struggle to score. It’s difficult to see Kansas losing this game. However, the Jayhawks potentially have a brutal Round of 32 matchup against the Big East champions, St. John’s. They will not be a choice in the Round of 32 or beyond, so this is a great time to utilize Kansas in survivor pools.
First Round Survivor Favorites to Avoid
Tennessee and BYU
My two picks to avoid in the first round of the survivor pool are directly correlated. Tennessee and BYU are both 6-seeds who will be taking on the two 11-seed winners from the First Four. Teams from the First Four are always a tough out after gaining momentum by shaking the rust off in the First Four. In 12 of the past 14 tournaments, a team from the First Four has won a game in the Round of 64. So, that trend implies that there is an 85% chance that either Tennessee or BYU will lose in the opening round.
Tennessee is already not playing its best basketball, having lost four of its last six games down the stretch. They will have a tough Round of 64 matchup, either against SMU, which ranks 26th in the nation in offensive rating, or against Miami (OH), which has only lost one game all season. Meanwhile, BYU has been far too inconsistent defensively. BYU also finished the season losing five of its last nine games. Despite having the great AJ Dybantsa, the Cougars could be primed to be upset in the opening round.
