Early in the season, the LA Clippers and New Orleans Pelicans both looked as if they’d gift playoff teams high lottery picks, as the Clippers started the season 6-21 with their first-round pick owed to the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Pelicans 3-22 with their pick going to the Atlanta Hawks. LA eventually turned it around, climbing over .500 at 34-32 before losing two straight, while New Orleans has not.
The teams will face off on back-to-back nights in the Bayou, with tonight’s game tipping off at 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Clippers have three major players with injury questions, as Kawhi Leonard (ankle) and Darius Garland (toe) are both questionable and Bennedict Mathurin (toe) is out. The Pelicans, on the other hand, should be completely healthy, as their only absent players are two-way contracts Trey Alexander, Hunter Dickinson, and Josh Oduro and eighth man Bryce McGowens (toe).
This game is pretty much a toss-up, with New Orleans -135 on the Moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook and LA +114. The point total is set to 234.5. Below, I’ll break down the clash and offer a prediction.
LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans preview, prediction
Even after trading James Harden and Ivica Zubac away at the trade deadline, the Clippers have remained pretty competitive, going a solid 11-8 across that span. However, LA is on a two-game losing streak, with one highly excusable loss (against the San Antonio Spurs without Leonard) and a highly inexcusable one (against the bottom-feeding Sacramento Kings, in which Leonard left early with the injury). Still, the Clippers have a decent chance of bouncing back tonight, especially if Garland plays; he’s been stellar in his first five games as an LA starter, scoring at least 21 points in each one and draining 48.9% of his three-pointers.
The Pelicans shouldn’t be underestimated, though. Unlike all of the other non-playoff teams in the Western Conference, New Orleans has been trying to win, and win it has, going a solid 8-5 since the All-Star break. To be fair, the Pelicans haven’t had the most difficult schedule in that span, playing twice against the Utah Jazz and once against the Washington Wizards, but wins are wins regardless. Murray has played remarkably in his eight games since returning from a torn Achilles, averaging 19.8 points and 1.8 steals per game and making 65.2% of his two-pointers, providing at least a glimmer of hope for a team that desperately needs one.
Clippers at Pelicans pick, best bet
Just as they have for much of the past seven seasons, the Clippers’ chances largely hinge on whether or not Leonard plays. Fun Guy, who can miss just two more games before he becomes ineligible for an All-NBA team, has played like an MVP candidate this season, averaging a career-high 28.3 points per game, and LA has been 12.5 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the bench. With him on the floor, the Clippers have had the equivalent of the league’s best offense and 19th-best defense; without him, those numbers have dropped to the 21st-ranked offense and the 28th-ranked defense. Garland and Mathurin have also had hugely positive impacts in their limited minutes, though that’s in part because neither was on the roster during LA’s ghastly opening stretch.
New Orleans lives in the interior on both sides of the ball. Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have attempted the second-most shots in the restricted area, though they’ve canned them at a slightly below-average rate. That could make them a difficult matchup against a Clippers team that has conceded the ninth-highest percentage on layups since trading Zubac. However, across the same span, New Orleans has also allowed opponents to attempt layups at an above-average rate, and while LA doesn’t get to the rim very frequently, it finishes with the league’s third-best accuracy. All in all, despite their sometimes shoddy paint defense, the Pelicans should have an advantage in the interior, especially if Leonard (among the Clippers’ best and most frequent finishers) doesn’t play.
New Orleans could also have somewhat of an advantage on the glass. Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have posted the league’s eighth-highest total rebounding percentage, while LA ranks 16th, and the Clippers could end up being worse without Leonard, who was nicknamed Board Man in college for his rebounding prowess. New Orleans should also be better in transition, since LA’s roster is pretty old and it is missing its most athletic young player in Mathurin. However, the Clippers should still be able to take advantage of the Pelicans’ foul-prone nature, even without Mathurin, the team’s leader in free throw attempts per game now that Harden is off the roster.
With a slight disadvantage in the other important facets in the game, LA will need to make up for it with shot-making. That’s where New Orleans has struggled, even amid its post-All-Star stretch. Across that span, the Pelicans have allowed the third-most wide-open three-pointers per game and gotten fortunate that opponents have connected at the eighth-lowest rate, but they can’t bank on getting so lucky against the Clippers, whose two qualified shooters (Leonard and John Collins) have both made their triples at a rate significantly higher than expected. New Orleans has been better at generating uncontested looks, but its shooting options (Trey Murphy III aside) just aren’t very good.
Home-court advantage is a major factor, accounting for a swing of nearly 10 points per 100 possessions in the Pelicans’ favor relative to the same matchup at the Intuit Dome, but I’m just not sold on New Orleans’ recent hot stretch, given that it is just 2-4 against teams with winning records in that span, including a 20-point loss to the Clippers in which Garland didn’t play. The Pelicans give up enough easy shots that LA should be able to make them pay as long as at least one of Garland and Leonard plays.
