The Illinois Chicago Flames (19-15, 12-8 MVC) and California Golden Bears (21-11, 9-9 ACC) will face off in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday night, going head-to-head on the Golden Bears’ home floor. The postseason showdown will tip off at 11 p.m. ET/8 p.m. PT on ESPN2.
The Golden Bears are 5.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with -250 Moneyline odds. The total is set at 151.5 points.
Illinois Chicago vs. California Preview, Prediction
Illinois Chicago Preview
When the Flames got off to a 5-10 start, it would have been hard to believe they would be participating in any level of postseason action. They proceeded to rattle off eight straight wins in Missouri Valley Conference play, sparking a 14-5 stretch. That came to an end in the MVC title game, which went Northern Iowa’s way.
BYU transfer Elijah Crawford has been a borderline star since missing over a month with an injury, averaging 14.1 points and 4.6 assists per game. 5-foot-9 guard Ahmad Henderson is averaging 12.1 points per game in his own right, followed by guard Andy Johnson and his 11.4 points per game. 6-foot-9 forward Jayce Nathaniel, who only averages 20.0 minutes a night, is the only player in Illinois Chicago’s rotation who is taller than 6-foot-7.
Despite that lack of size, teams take many threes against the Flames. While their defense holds opponents to a bottom-100 shooting percentage from beyond the arc, their three-point rate against ranks bottom-20. UIC boasts the No. 32 turnover differential and No. 20 offensive rebounding percentage in the country.
The Flames rank No. 106 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 149 offense and No. 84 defense. As for the NET rankings, Illinois Chicago comes in at No. 110. The program is 1-2 against Quad 1, 3-5 against Quad 2, 6-7 against Quad 3 and 7-1 against Quad 4. Wednesday’s game against Cal constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
California Preview
Had the Golden Bears held serve down the stretch, they could very easily be dancing right now. They got off to a 12-1 start, after all, and that one nonconference loss came by three points at Kansas State. California lost at Wake Forest in the final game of the regular season, though, then fell to Florida State in the ACC tournament. Those results effectively burst the Golden Bears’ bubble, bumping them from the NCAA tourney to the NIT for their postseason journey.
Dai Dai Ames, at his third school in three years, broke out with 17.2 points per game on .466/.381/.862 shooting splits. Across his last two outings, Ames put up 58 points. Michigan transfer Justin Pippen has chipped in 14.3 points and 4.5 assists per game, while forward John Camden is averaging 13.8 points per game thanks in large part to his 39.8% clip from deep. Lee Dort, on the other hand, is a constant double-double threat with his 8.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game.
The key to the Golden Bears’ success comes from beyond the arc – on both ends of the floor. Their offense ranks No. 44 in three-point percentage, while their defense ranks No. 32 in three-point percentage against. They rank outside the top 200 nationally in both turnover and free throw differential, however.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Golden Bears rank No. 94 on offense, No. 59 on defense, and No. 73 overall. They come in at No. 67 in the NET, going 4-6 against Quad 1, 2-4 against Quad 2, 6-1 against Quad 3 and 8-0 against Quad 4. Wednesday’s game versus UIC constitutes a Quad 3 matchup.
Illinois Chicago vs. California Pick, Best Bet
When facing teams ranked outside the T-Rank top 100 this season, the Golden Bears are 14-2. They have won by at least five in all 14 of those victories, covering a -6.5-point spread in 12 of them. Considering the Flames rank No. 111 in that net efficiency metric, Cal is in a decent spot to win somewhat comfortably.
Illinois Chicago lost by 15 in their last outing, despite seemingly picking up momentum earlier in the conference tournament. The Flames have been off for 10 whole days at this point, too, so whatever momentum was left has certainly died. The team that beat them, Northern Iowa, ranks just two spots above Cal in the KenPom. On average, UIC’s margin of defeat in losses is 7.9 points, failing to cover a +6.5-point spread in eight of their 15 losses. That average margin of defeat goes up to 9.7 points in road and neutral losses, too.
The Bart Torvik model has the Golden Bears projected to win by 7.5 points on Wednesday. ESPN Analytics gives them a 78.2% chance of winning, which is above Bart Torvik’s 77%. Look for Cal to take advantage of an Illinois Chicago defense that allows opponents to hoist up a bunch of threes and win by more than two possessions.
