The bracket is set, the First Four is underway, and we are officially on the cusp of the best sporting event of the year. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering more ways to get involved in the NCAA Tournament action than ever before. However, the futures markets remain a great way to have a vested interest beyond a one-game setting and maximize your potential payout.
This article will look at my top picks for which team will earn their way out of their respective regions. Check out all the updated odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for each Final Four option here.
Top March Madness Final Four Picks:
East Region:
The East Region is loaded with talented teams and some of the top head coaches in all of basketball. Duke enters the tournament as the top overall seed and a notable -135 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to win the East.
Anything can happen in a one-game sample size, but Duke is the largest favorite to win its region for a reason. The Blue Devils finished the regular season with a 32-2 record, with the pair of losses coming against Texas Tech and North Carolina. They average 82.3 points per game, which ranks 48th in the country, and are holding teams to the third-fewest points at 63.1 per game. Duke also ranks in the top seven in both offensive and defensive ratings, consistently performing at a high level on both sides of the ball.
If all favorites are to win, Duke’s path through the East would go Siena, Ohio State, St. John’s/Kansas, and UConn/Michigan State. It is unlikely things play out without any upsets, but it has defeated Kansas and Michigan State already this season and has played some of its best basketball down the home stretch of the season. Duke is dealing with some injuries, which is the biggest concern for it failing to reach this stage. But when it plays its best basketball, it seems as if no team in the country can match it. Duke fell to Houston in the Final Four last year, and this is a better team with more regular-season success. Expect the Blue Devils to showcase their high level of play and reach the Final Four again. They are the most complete team in this region and have played with a maturity all season that will be put on display in the tournament.
Midwest Region:
Keeping with chalk picks isn’t the most exciting tactic, but I am keeping with it in the Midwest. Looking at the KenPom Net ratings, Duke (+38.88), Arizona (+37.60) and Michigan (+37.58) led the country as the lone teams with a net rating above +33.75 this year. All three each also spent some time ranked in the top five Net Ratings ever recorded for a college basketball team during the season.
Michigan fell to Auburn in the Sweet 16 last year, and it aggressively attacked the transfer portal to build a deep NCAA Tournament threat. Former UAB star Yaxel Lendeborg has flourished into a star, posting averages of 14.6 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists. Illinois transfer Morez Johnson Jr. is a dynamic pairing on the interior, adding 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds of his own. UCLA transfer Aday Mara also sets the tone on the interior, and North Carolina transfer Elliot Cadeau has figured out his perimeter jump shot in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have plenty of age and experience, which will be increasingly valuable in this type of setting.
Dusty May’s squad finished the season with a 31-3 record, with its three losses coming against Wisconsin, Duke and Purdue. It ranks 11th in scoring at 86.8 points per game, ranks in the top-14 in both offensive and defensive ratings, and is one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Iowa State is the biggest threat, and I give Virginia more of a chance than its +1100 odds indicate, but Michigan is another tier above every team in this bracket, and I expect the Wolverines to assert themselves to get through to the Final Four. Parlaying Duke and Michigan to both reach the Final Four offers +207 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
South Region:
Oddsmakers have the South region labeled as the most wide open, with Florida the favorite at +165 odds. Last year’s National Champion returns with some notable roster turnover, but it has reason for belief with plenty of success this season. However, I am backing the Houston Cougars to return to the Final Four for the second consecutive season.
The Cougars lean on a defensive-minded identity for success and are one of the toughest teams in the country. Kelvin Sampson’s squad ranks second in opponent points allowed at 62.9 points per contest, as well as 10th in defensive rating and 16th in opponent field-goal percentage. Offensively, Houston is scoring 77.1 points per game, which ranks 148th in the country, but it is 36th in offensive rating and limits turnovers at the highest rate among all CBB teams.
Emanuel Sharp returns from the successful NCAA Tournament run last year and helps set the tone, with Milos Uzan also holding the scars from coming up just short. Houston typically leans on experience, but a few freshmen have proven to be staples of this year’s team. Kingston Flemings runs the offense and embodies Sampson’s style of play, while Chris Cenac Jr. also plays a major role. Houston can dominate a game defensively and on the boards, which makes the blueprint for beating the Cougs difficult. Florida and Illinois are strong teams, and Vanderbilt could open some eyes. But Houston proved it is capable of playing at one of the highest levels in college basketball and has a higher level of talent than last year’s team.
Optimism for the Cougars’ outlook slipped after the three-game losing skid that occurred against Iowa State, Arizona and Kansas. However, this group was able to showcase its resiliency and has played at a high level since that tough stretch. Expect the defensive ability and toughness to play in this NCAA Tournament setting once again. There will be some additional motivation on Houston’s side after Florida defeated it in the National Championship last year. Both teams’ rosters bounced back, but there is a cohesive nature to this Houston team that will carry it through.
West Region:
Arizona is the lone other team that looked on another level this season. It holds -120 odds of winning the West Region, but I am backing the +1100 odds of Arkansas winning the region. The Razorbacks enter this matchup with plenty of momentum after winning the SEC Tournament. John Calipari’s squad finished the year with a 26-8 record and scored at the fourth-best rate in the country. Arkansas ranks 10th in team three-point percentage, 13th in field-goal percentage, eighth in offensive rating and 13th in turnovers per game. Darius Acuff Jr. continues to climb up draft boards, averaging an SEC-leading 22.9 points and 6.5 assists per game. He has been at his best when the moment has been at its brightest as of late and has the feel of a player who can carry a team through the tournament. With Meleek Thomas and Trevon Brazile as proper running mates with him, expect this Razorbacks offense to put up points at a high rate throughout.
While Arizona is 32-2 on the season and has played its way into the conversation of upper-echelon of college basketball teams, the Wildcats have some turnover issues and score almost exclusively inside the paint. Arizona ranks 358th in three-point attempts per game and second in two-point attempts per game. Its two losses came against Texas Tech and Kansas, and 12 of its wins came by 10 points or fewer. In a one-game setting, anything can happen, and there are more vulnerabilities than have been exploited to this point. It is a make-or-miss sport, and Arizona has not quite proven reliable enough of a shooting team for my liking. It will be a tough, physical battle, but Arkansas can outshoot the Wildcats and has shown the ability to match this type of physicality.
Purdue and Gonzaga each deserve mention as teams that will be in the mix. But neither is quite to the top-end standard that the programs have reached in the past, and they have flaws that can be exploited. For Purdue, the Boilermakers were shaping up to have one of the more disappointing seasons in the country this year before winning the Big Ten Conference Tournament to build some momentum. But Purdue has losses to teams like UCLA, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State. Expect its true colors to show and for Purdue to be exposed for its defensive deficiencies. Gonzaga carries plenty of defensive concerns of its own, and it will lose the three-point battle in just about every game. It ranks 300th in three-point volume offensively and 294th in three-point attempts allowed. Gonzaga is a good team, but it has too many flaws to carve out a true deep tournament run.
It feels like Arkansas hit another gear late in the season that should be expected to carry into this NCAA Tournament. The Razorbacks are peaking at the right time and have plenty of experience facing the top teams. I am buying what I have seen from John Calipari’s squad in recent games and see Arkansas earning its first Final Four appearance since 1995.
The odds for parlaying all four of my Final Four selections are currently +12,835 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
You can also check out what myself and the rest of the DraftKings Network group are betting for the NCAA Tournament on The CBB Board Social Betting Group here.
