Tonight, the 2026 World Baseball Classic comes to an end, but what a tournament it’s been!
Walk-off home runs, dramatic tie-breaker scenarios, and so, so, so many bat flips. This WBC has been the most high profile in its 20 years of existence, and has continued a very nice run of prominence for the game of baseball as a whole, especially coming off a fantastic World Series.
Now, we’ll all get to enjoy a juicy matchup of contrasting styles in the championship game. Team USA will take on Team Venezuela in Miami, in what will likely feel like a road tilt for the Americans — at least if the two semifinal matchups were any indication of the crowd.
Venezuela’s roster is loaded with MLB talent, yet the club still finds itself as a massive underdog on Tuesday. Can it pull off the upset? Let’s preview this 8:00 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Venezuela vs. USA prediction, preview
The USA has two distinct advantages in this championship matchup. First and foremost, its roster is stacked with the creme de la creme of MLB players, including the likes of Aaron Judge, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kyle Schwarber. Secondly, the Americans have been twiddling their thumbs since defeating the Dominican Republic on Sunday, which gives precious time for the squad’s bullpen to rest.
The availability of relievers is a huge element of baseball, in general, yet it’s even more important than usual in a tournament like the WBC. Remember, it’s March. Not only are starters not built up enough to flirt with the 95-pitch limit in the championship round, but the organizations that pay these arms millions of dollars are not going to want to see their set-up man or closer used on back-to-back days. To that end, Mark DeRosa has already ruled out David Bednar, who pitched in both the USA’s win over the Dominicans and the Canadians. Closer Mason Miller is also a question mark. That said, the Americans have the depth to survive these subtractions. Heck, they’ve brought in Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman, Will Vest and Tim Hill since the end of pool play. They’ll be fine.
The Venezuelan bullpen might be a different story. With starter Keider Montero only able to register four outs in yesterday’s semifinal victory over Italy, Venezuela was forced to use six relievers to survive. That included the high-leverage quartet of Eduard Bazardo, Angel Zerpa, Andres Machado and Daniel Palencia, who all also pitched Saturday night in Venezuela’s quarterfinal win over Japan. As has become overly apparent throughout this tournament, the World Baseball Classic just means a little more to countries like Venezuela, the Dominican Republic and Japan. That could mean Bazardo, Zerpa and Palencia push to be available for the third time in four days. However, there’s a real chance that the Mariners, Brewers and Cubs, respectively, might have more say in the matter. If that trio of relievers aren’t options for late innings, it’s really difficult to see the Venezuelans shutting down the USA’s elite bats.
Maybe it’s a matter of perception and massive expectations, but despite underwhelming offensive performances against Canada and the DR, there have been some American hitters tearing up this tournament. In fact, Gunnar Henderson, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Roman Anthony and the aforementioned Schwarber all have on OPS of 1.000 or higher across the United States’ first six games. The interesting aspect of Tuesday’s matchup? All four of those men are left-handed, and they’ll be going up against southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez. Now, we’re all familiar with E-Rod, who has pitched 10 seasons in MLB for the Red Sox, Tigers and Diamondbacks. Obviously there’s some value in starting a pitcher with over 1,300 career major league innings under his belt, yet Rodriguez has recently fallen upon hard times, posting an ERA above 5.00 in both 2024 and 2025. The soon-to-be 33-year-old has lost some zip on his fastball and that’s simply compounded his long-standing control issues. Rodriguez’s first appearance of this tournament was in pool play against the Dominican, where he conceded a pair of long balls in only 2.2 innings of work. Less than ideal.
That said, it’s not like the USA is starting prime Nolan Ryan in this champion contest. No, that would instead be Nolan McLean, who was famously charged with the loss in the Americans’ highly publicized defeat to the Italians last week. Still, McLean’s stuff graded out as immaculate in that outing, it just so happened that both hits he surrendered over three innings left the park. In 48.0 frames with the Mets in 2025, McLean posted a 2.06 ERA and a 2.97 FIP. He struck out 30.3% of the batters he faced with an otherworldly 60.2% ground ball rate. There’s a reason he’s ranked as the Mets’ No. 1 prospect and the No. 6 prospect in all of baseball by MLB Pipeline. He’s young, but he’s quite good.
Venezuela vs. USA pick, best bet
Best Bet: USA -1.5 (-130)
With Maikel Garcia, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Eugenio Suarez at the top of its lineup, Venezuela can score runs with anyone in the World Baseball Classic. I mean, its hitting Jackson Chourio ninth for goodness sake. He’s a dark horse MVP candidate in 2026. However, having emptied their bullpen on Monday, it’s clear the Venezuelans are at a massive disadvantage in the pitching department of this matchup. I expect Nolan McLean to rebound from his underwhelming showing in pool play and out-duel Eduardo Rodriguez. It’s that simple.
