The NIT is officially underway, as the best of the rest are set to tip off. Few teams know heartbreak quite like UNC Wilmington (26-6, 15-3) and Yale (24-6, 11-3). The Seahawks were the CAA’s team to beat all season, up until a shocking 85-70 tournament loss to Campbell. As for the Bulldogs, an overtime defeat to Penn ended their March Madness hopes in stunning fashion. Which of these two programs will make a statement on Tuesday?
Yale enters tonight as 4.5-point favorites (-112) over UNCW. The total is set at 146.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip off is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Tuesday’s game between the Seahawks and Bulldogs.
UNC Wilmington vs. Yale prediction, preview
If there’s one defining trait for the Seahawks, it’s their size. This squad is 11th on KenPom with an average height of 78.9″ inches. Their best player is a seven-footer, Patrick Wessler. This season, the center is averaging 13.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 1.0 blocks per game while shooting 61% from the field. He’s joined by a trio of standout guards in Nolan Hodge, Christian May and Madison Durr. Each of those three is putting up at least ten points per game. To boot, UNC Wilmington has seven total players that have notched at least 9.3 PPG.
With that being said, this group doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well. The Seahawks have posted a 50.9% effective field goal percentage, 202nd in college basketball. To boot, their offense is operating at a 65.1 adjusted tempo, 303rd in the nation. Still, a lack of scoring hasn’t hurt UNCW very often this season. On the other end of the floor, the team is holding opponents to just 67.7 points per game. That’s the sport’s 37th-best mark. Height inside the paint, along with a stifling perimeter defense, make this a tough out for almost anyone.
This is a true battle between an immovable force and an unstoppable object. Yale prides itself on generating buckets, ranking 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency (121.1) on KenPom. Much like the Seahawks, this is a balanced, well-rounded roster. Five different Bulldogs have tallied double-digit points per game. The headliner is Nick Townsend, who leads the team in points (16.4 PPG), rebounds (7.4 REB) and assists (4.3 AST). He’s been quite efficient as well, knocking down an absurd 47.3% of his three-point attempts.
Townsend isn’t alone on this roster when it comes to shotmaking ability. The Bulldogs are third in the sport with a 39.9% three-point percentage. Surprisingly, they don’t take that many attempts. However, that’s a direct result of their glacial tempo on offense. Yale, for all its regular season dominance, played in plenty of nail-biters. The school lost or won by single digits in seven of its last 11 contests. Against a brand new opponent, separation could be hard to come by for either side tonight.
UNC Wilmington vs. Yale pick, best bet
As previously mentioned, Yale’s offense depends heavily on success from beyond the arc. That’s not ideal against a Seahawks squad holding teams to college basketball’s fifth-lowest three-point shooting percentage (29.5%). Considering that both of these offenses aren’t looking to push the pace, this is leaning towards a defensively-minded matchup. If that occurs, the advantage likely goes to UNC Wilmington.
