UMBC vs. Howard College Basketball prediction, preview
UMBC and Howard won their respective conference tournaments, and landed 16-seeds in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament. The Retrievers and Bison will do the honor of playing the opening game of the tournament in Dayton, with the winner earning the right to face Michigan on Thursday.
These teams played some of the softest schedules in the country, but the Bison at least tried their best to schedule some stronger competition with games against Duke and Missouri. The Retrievers’ most impressive showing was likely a six-point loss to Dayton.
UMBC has a pretty sizable offensive advantage, ranking exactly 100 spots ahead of Howard in offensive efficiency on KenPom. However, the Bison hold a defensive efficiency advantage by nearly the same margin. While UMBC enters the First Four on a 12-game winning streak, it really doesn’t have a “tough” win all season.
It’s last loss was in late January and came on the road to a solid Vermont team. UMBC got home court for the entire America East Tournament, and has not played a game on a neutral floor all season. All of UMBC’s wins this season are Quad 4 victories, where the Retrievers went 22-3 this season. They went 0-5 in all other games.
Meanwhile, the Bison picked up a Quad 2 win and Quad 3 win. Howard also played on a neutral floor five times this season and won all of them. The Bison have performed well as an underdog on the season, going 7-2 ATS and winning four of those nine games outright.
UMBC might be the more consistent team, but Howard seems to have the higher ceiling and has been more tested this season. I’ll back the Bison as short underdogs in the First Four to open NCAA Tournament play.
