Much has been made of Tottenham’s performance in the Premier League this season, as Spurs are just one point above the relegation zone. It isn’t all bad for Tottenham, which remains alive in the Champions League, but elimination in the Round of 16 would seal what has been a nightmarish season in North London.
Spurs face a difficult fight for survival at 4 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) on Wednesday when they host Atlético Madrid in the second leg of the teams’ Round of 16 tie. Los Colchoneros enjoyed an offensive explosion at the Estadio Metropolitano last Tuesday to build up a 5-2 lead heading back to England.
Atleti is a +150 favorite to win the second leg (-3000 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Tottenham is +155 (+1200 to advance). There are +285 odds that the teams will draw, which would send the Spanish side through.
Tottenham vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, pick
For as disappointing as Spurs have been in the Premier League, they made light work of the League Phase, picking up just one loss in a tightly-fought thriller against defending champions Paris Saint-Germain. They scored at least two goals in each of their final five League Phase matches, winning each of the last three. Los Colchoneros dropped a pair of decisions against Premier League giants in the League Phase but looked to be in good position to secure a top-eight finish regardless until they were upset by Bodø/Glimt. Atleti then required three second-half goals against Club Brugge to advance past the Belgian side in the Knockout Playoffs.
The first leg wasn’t quite as lopsided as the final score indicated. Each team attempted 11 shots, and Los Colchoneros only produced 0.6 expected goals’ worth of chances more than Tottenham did. Spurs should be able to take some solace in completing 14 successful dribbles and 10 key passes, as well as in their league draw against Liverpool. Their injury crisis might let up somewhat soon, as Destiny Udogie and Lucas Bergvall, each of whom has missed more than a month, could both be active for the match. Udogie’s and Bergvall’s potential returns could give Tottenham more juice to bolster an attack that ranked 11th in expected goals per match in the League Phase. Spurs also played solidly on defense during the League Phase, allowing among the fewest expected goals per match and the 15th-fewest expected goals per shot, so they could be due for some improvement. They’ve won a majority of both their ground and aerial duels so far this competition, and Guglielmo Vicario has had a strong Champions League campaign even though he’s struggled in the Premier League.
However, the three-goal lead should be safe for Atleti. Whenever a team scores five goals, there’s always an element of luck involved, but Los Colchoneros were genuinely clinical, attempting nine of their 11 shots inside the box despite not completing their passes at a rate higher than usual. Even if Tottenham were fully healthy, Atleti would still have the more talented attackers, with Julián Álvarez and Alexander Sørloth leading the line and the newly-acquired Ademola Lookman providing yet another option. Together, Los Colchoneros have managed to produce the eighth-most expected goals per match. They’ve also been one of the best teams in aerial duel situations — as evidenced by their 72.2% aerial-duel win rate in the first leg — and allowed among the fewest goals from headers and set pieces. Jan Oblak hasn’t been good between the sticks in the Champions League, but he’s been much more solid in La Liga and has a long pedigree of success.
Atleti doesn’t press very frequently, so it isn’t necessarily the most well-suited to take advantage of Tottenham’s mistake-prone nature, but Spurs’ struggles to play the offsides trap means Los Colchoneros’ aggressive attacking style could prove a challenge. Plus, Tottenham relies heavily on crosses, and Atleti has been among the best teams in such situations. Spurs also haven’t been nearly as good at home as they arguably should be, and their season will end in a whimper.
