The South Alabama Jaguars (21-11, 11-7 Sun Belt) and Auburn Tigers (17-16, 7-11 SEC) will face off in the opening round of the NIT on Tuesday night, going head-to-head on the Tigers’ home floor. The postseason showdown will tip off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
The Tigers are 18.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook with -2400 Moneyline odds. The total is set at 153.5 points.
South Alabama vs. Auburn Preview, Prediction
South Alabama Preview
The Jaguars haven’t had a losing record since coach Richie Riley took over the program in 2018. He guided the team to 21 wins for the second straight year and the third time in five seasons. However, a seven-way tie for second place in the Sun Belt led to a No. 6 seed and 0-1 showing at the conference tournament. South Alabama is currently 11-7 in away and neutral site contests on the season.
Chaze Harris is the focal point of the Jaguars’ offense, averaging 18.9 points, 4.9 assists and 4.7 rebounds per game. Harris attempts 12.4 two-pointers and 7.7 free throws per game, but only 0.7 shots from beyond the arc. Forward Adam Olsen is the team’s most prolific shooter, sinking 39.5% of his 8.3 three-point attempts per game en route to 16.7 points a night. Guard Randy Brady is actually South Alabama’s leading rebounder with 5.8 boards per game, but center Stephen Williams is chipping in a solid 6.1 points, 4.5 rebounds and 0.8 blocks per game off the bench.
On one hand, the Jaguars committed the fewest fouls and the third-fewest turnovers per game in the country this season. On the other, they boast a bottom-10 free throw percentage. Opponents know exactly how to attack South Alabama’s defense, as well, since they take the fewest twos and most threes per game against them.
The Jaguars rank No. 205 in the updated KenPom ratings, owning the No. 212 offense and No. 197 defense. As for the NET rankings, South Alabama comes in at No. 187. The program is 0-0 against Quad 1, 1-2 against Quad 2, 7-5 against Quad 3 and 11-4 against Quad 4. Tuesday’s game against Auburn constitutes a Quad 1 matchup.
Auburn Preview
Ask any member of the Pearl family, and they would tell you that the Tigers deserve to be in the Big Dance this week. They played the sixth-most difficult schedule in the country this season and launched a massive campaign to pick up an at-large bid leading into Selection Sunday. Their win at Florida back in January was one of the most impressive in the country, after all. Auburn is just one win over .500 and is on a 3-9 skid, though, so it isn’t exactly at its best right now.
After starring at UNLV, George Mason and UCF, Keyshawn Hall joined the Tigers and immediately averaged 19.8 points and 6.7 rebounds per game. Kevin Overton, who is putting up 13.4 points per game, is right alongside Hall when it comes to efficiency with both guards shooting over 38% from deep and 85% from the free throw line. Then there’s Tahaad Pettiford, a sophomore point guard averaging 15.5 points per game, while Mississippi State transfer big man KeShawn Murphy averages 10.7 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.0 block and 1.0 steal a night.
Auburn attempts the fourth-most free throws per game in the country and holds the 12th-best offensive rebounding rate. The Tigers boast a bottom-20 three-point defense, however, and their top-50 scoring offense has often been canceled out by their bottom-50 scoring defense.
Per the latest KenPom ratings, the Tigers rank No. 15 on offense, No. 107 on defense, and No. 38 overall – highest by any team that didn’t make the NCAA tournament. They come in at No. 38 in the NET, going 4-13 against Quad 1, 3-2 against Quad 2, 4-1 against Quad 3 and 6-0 against Quad 4. Tuesday’s game versus South Alabama constitutes a Quad 4 matchup.
South Alabama vs. Auburn Pick, Best Bet
Credit to Auburn and the program’s leadership for accepting an invitation to the NIT. They could have easy pouted and gone home like Notre Dame did when they got left out of the College Football playoff, but they seem eager to prove the selection committee wrong. Bart Torvik‘s model has Auburn projected to win by 19.0 points. That doesn’t take the chip on the Tigers’ shoulder into account either, if you believe in that sort of thing.
Of Auburn’s 16 losses, 13 came to NCAA Tournament-bound teams. They went 11-4 at home, including 7-1 against non-tournament teams. In March alone, the Tigers have already beat LSU by 14 and Mississippi State by 18. As for the Jaguars, they are fresh off 13-point and 9-point losses to Southern Mississippi and Georgia Southern. Their final road game of nonconference play was a 26-point loss to East Tennessee State, too, and the Buccaneers are 129 spots lower than the Tigers in the KenPom net efficiency rankings.
I’m banking on Auburn going scorched Earth in this contest, since committing to postseason play was quite the show of confidence on its own.
