March Madness kicks off a little bit later this week as the Round of 64 gets going, but there’s still high-stakes hoops on deck in the meantime. The NIT bracket gets rolling on Tuesday and a matchup between the SFA Lumberjacks and Tulsa Golden Hurricane has the makings of a very fun affair.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for SFA vs. Tulsa on Tuesday, March 16 in the NIT.
SFA vs. Tulsa prediction, preview
On one side of this matchup are the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, a Southland competitor which challenged NCAA Tournament qualifier McNeese State for the top spot in the conference. They went 28-5 overall this season and fall 91st in the KenPom rankings with a +8.43 NETRTG. The team hangs its hat on a strong defense that allows just 66.0 PPG, 14th fewest in the nation. Opponents have an eFG% of only 47.9% against the Lumberjacks, and they take away the three-pointer well with just 6.0 3PM allowed per game, 17th fewest. They pull down 36.3 rebounds as well. The offense is less impressive with 74.6 PPG, a FG% of just 44.6% and a 3P% of 36.0%. They dish 13.1 assists and have an AST/TO ratio of 1.405.
Keon Thompson’s play has stood out for this team throughout the campaign, averaging 18.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. His all-around numbers are complemented by Lateef Patrick, who pitches in 15.3 points and 1.5 steals as his running mate. Narit Chotikavanic brings 9.3 PPG with a 39.4% 3P%, and Chrishawn Christmas and Jerald Colonel play key roles in the rotation as well.
Looking toward the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, this program finished second in the American Conference and holds a 26-7 record on the season. The program sits 63rd per the KenPom rankings with a +12.97 NETRTG thanks to one of the nation’s elite offenses. The Golden Hurricane have the 34th-best ORTG and score 84.3 PPG, doing so with efficient shooting splits at a 47.4% FG% and 39.4% 3P%. Their three-point percentage ranks fourth in the country and they make the 16th most threes per game in the process. They also dish 15.4 assists with a 1.451 AST/TO ratio. Tulsa brings in 36.5 rebounds per contest while allowing 73.9 PPG to opponents and a 49.9% eFG%.
The Golden Hurricane have four double-digit scorers, headlined by David Green and his 16.1 points with 4.5 rebounds per game. Tylen Riley brings 15.1 points with a team-best 4.3 dimes. Miles Barnstable averages 14.6 PPG and Ade Popoola scores 10.3 PPG. All four of the leading scorers shoot 39.4% or better from beyond the arc as well.
SFA vs. Tulsa pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Tulsa as a 7.5-point favorite at home with -310 odds on the Moneyline. SFA is a +250 ML underdog with the game total set at 150.5 combined points.
It’s easy to see why the Golden Hurricane enter as the favorites here. After all, they have a superior offense that brings elite perimeter shooting and can far outpace their opponents in the scoring column. Plus, they come from a larger conference (no disrespect to the Southland, of course) and have played a tougher schedule at 141st in opponent NETRTG compared to 235th for the Lumberjacks.
However, there’s a pathway for SFA to cover. Since the team is so good at shutting down the three-point shot, its best chance to get in under the 7.5-point margin is to slow down Tulsa’s perimeter-oriented attack and make the Golden Hurricane work inside instead. It’s not guaranteed to work, but limiting your opponents’ best weapon on offense can certainly give most teams a fighting chance. With that in mind, I actually like getting the Lumberjacks at this mark.
