On Tuesday’s NBA schedule, a matchup between the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds in the Western Conference brings potential playoff intrigue into the picture. The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves are both 6-4 across their last 10 games, and the latter just received bad news regarding the health of its superstar. Will this be a hard-fought fight between these sides tonight?
Here’s a Suns vs. Timberwolves prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of the 8 p.m. EST tip.
Suns vs. Timberwolves prediction, preview
Phoenix Suns
The Suns have remained firmly in the postseason mix this season and surpassed expectations in all honesty. At 39-29, they’re just two games back of the No. 6 seed to potentially avoid the Play-In Tournament entirely, making tonight’s contest against the team who currently holds it even more valuable.
With a NETRTG of +1.3, Phoenix is 15th in the stat and falls all the way to 26th in pace. The Suns succeed by slowing the tempo and dragging opponents into the mud, allowing the sixth-fewest PPG at 111.3 along with the third-fewest 3PM. They’re third in steals and opponent turnovers as well, though their 43.0 rebounds a game fall just 21st. Offensively, they’re scoring the fifth-fewest PPG with just 112.5 but are 15th in OFFRTG, so it’s tough to write the unit off on that side of things. The Suns have a poor FG% of just 45.5% but are ninth in 3P% at 36.3%, ranking top five in both 3PA and 3PM per game. Ball movement isn’t the team’s strong suit though, dishing just 24.7 assists with an AST/TO ratio of 1.702 that comes in at 24th.
Devin Booker’s 25.7 points and 6.0 assists are both team highs, but he’s begun to get more help from a key member of the supporting cast. Jalen Green has spent most of his first season in Phoenix injured but has bumped his scoring average to 24.6 PPG in eight games this month, fulfilling what seems to be a yearly prophecy when March rolls around. There are a couple of notable absences, with Grayson Allen doubtful to play and Mark Williams out. That leaves room for plenty of Collin Gillespie and Jordan Goodwin minutes, though the frontcourt will be backing its starting center and potentially pave the way for an Oso Ighodaro start.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The T-Wolves have a 41-27 record on the campaign and have plenty of the makings of a top contender. However, they’ve hit a rough patch recently and have now dropped back-to-back showings, and with Anthony Edwards set to miss a week or two, there’s reason to worry about their spot in the standings and slim grasp on the sixth seed.
Minnesota comes in at 11th in NETRTG at +3.3 and 10th in pace. The Timberwolves have one of the league’s top offenses with 118.5 PPG, sixth most, backed up by the 10th-ranked OFFRTG. Their efficiency is elite with top-five marks in FG% (48.5%) and 3P% (37.2%), and they get to the charity stripe at the sixth-highest rate as well. Playmaking isn’t their specialty with 26.1 assists and a 1.757 AST/TO ratio that falls 22nd, but the unit is clearly successful even in lieu of a standout floor general. The defense is also quite good as the Wolves are 11th in rebounding with 44.4 boards a night, 115.2 PPG allowed, the 11th-best DEFRTG and the seventh-lowest opponent eFG%. Plus, they’re fifth in blocks per game.
However, the absence of Edwards leaves the lineup without the 29.5 PPG of its alpha scorer. In his stead, Julius Randle will have to step up and shake off a recent slump, regaining form closer to his season-long numbers of 21.1 points, 6.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels can also absorb more volume after averaging 14.5 PPG and shooting 41.8% from deep. Donte DiVincenzo brings 12.5 points and 4.1 assists in the starting five with Rudy Gobert anchoring the group at center with 10.8 points and 11.2 rebounds a night. Plus, Naz Reid and Ayo Dosunmu typically average double-digit points off the bench.
Suns vs. Timberwolves pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Timberwolves as -3.5 home favorites tonight with -170 odds on the Moneyline. The Suns are listed at +142 odds on the ML with the game total set at 221.5 combined points.
How Minnesota handles business in Edwards’ absence will prove very interesting. Replacing an elite scorer like him is challenging, but there’s enough talent on the roster to carry the load with a group effort without him. The Timberwolves are 6-4 and average 118.2 PPG when he misses time this season, so perhaps they aren’t doomed after all.
Given how Phoenix likes to slow the tempo way down and Minnesota won’t have Edwards, I project scoring to take a dip in this matchup. Personally, I like the under on 221.5 since the Suns are 39-29 to the under and the Wolves are 26-32 themselves. Both defenses are of high quality, so watch for them to put it on display in something of a defensive slugfest this evening.
Top pick: Under 221.5 (-110)
