Every single time the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers face off, the game carries a certain tenor, especially after the contentious 2025 Eastern Conference Finals. That’s even been the case this season, despite the Knicks once again being contenders and the Pacers languishing at the bottom of the East at 15-53. Each of the teams’ three matchups this season has been decided by fewer than 10 points.
The teams will meet for the final time this season tonight at 7:40 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden.
New York will likely be without its captain, Jalen Brunson, who was downgraded to doubtful with ankle and neck injuries, with center Mitchell Robinson (back) questionable and Miles McBride (core) remaining out. Indiana has an exceptionally long injury report, with Quenton Jackson (calf), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Andrew Nembhard (calf), Aaron Nesmith (ankle), Micah Potter (triceps), Ben Sheppard (ankle), Obi Toppin (foot), and Ivica Zubac (ankle) all questionable, Pascal Siakam (knee) doubtful, and Johnny Furphy (ACL) and Tyrese Haliburton (Achilles) remaining out.
Given all of the Pacers’ injury questions, the Knicks are 14.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-900 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 222.5. Indiana is +600 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the Eastern Conference Finals rematch and offer a prediction.
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks preview, prediction
Indiana’s first-round pick will go to the LA Clippers in the Zubac deal if it falls between fifth and ninth overall, so the Pacers’ prerogative is to lose as much as possible. They’ve done a good job of doing just that, as they’re currently on a 13-game losing streak dating back to the All-Star break. They’ve taken a pretty cautious approach to their stars: Siakam has appeared in just four games since the All-Star break, and it took more than a month for Zubac to make his team debut despite playing regularly for the red-hot Clippers. Indiana is 1.5 games behind the Washington Wizards for the league’s worst record.
The Knicks sit third in the Eastern Conference, where they finished 2024-25 and where they have remained for most of the season. Overall, though, New York is peaking; after breaking out of a team-wide slump in early January, it has gone 19-7, picking up two wins over the Denver Nuggets and one over the Los Angeles Lakers in that span. Karl-Anthony Towns has picked up his scoring some, as he’s shot worse than 50% from the field just once in March, and trade deadline acquisition Jose Alvarado has been highly additive despite shooting the ball poorly.
Pacers at Knicks pick, best bet
The Knicks’ offense might struggle somewhat tonight with Brunson likely sidelined. Without him, New York’s offensive rating has dropped from 121.7 (the equivalent of the league’s best mark across the full season) to 115.5, which would rank 13th. However, it should take a huge step defensively; though the Knicks’ defense has been roughly league-average with Brunson on the floor, it has had the equivalent of the league’s second-best defense when he sits. Either way, New York without Brunson is significantly better than the Pacers without Siakam. This season, Indiana has been out-scored by 12.6 points per 100 possessions when the Cameroonian sits.
Getting downhill will be a key. Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have allowed the eighth-most attempts within the restricted area and the fourth-highest percentage on such shots, and they could be significantly worse if Zubac, an All-Defensive Second Teamer last season, sits. Both teams have been roughly average at getting downhill, though the Knicks lose less downhill juice with Brunson absent than Indiana does with Siakam. The major differentiating factor is New York’s defense; since the All-Star break, the Knicks have allowed the league’s lowest percentage in the restricted area, and they should improve dramatically in that aspect with Brunson absent.
New York should have a major edge on the glass as well. The Pacers have been one of the worst rebounding teams in NBA history this season, as they’ve snagged just 47.8% of all available boards, though they’ve slightly improved since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Knicks rank fifth in total rebounding percentage both for the season as a whole and after the All-Star break, and they’ve been significantly better with Brunson on the bench. New York also has a major edge in transition on both sides of the ball. Indiana does have a foul differential advantage, but it’s very slight (negative-0.4 to negative-0.3).
Perimeter play could give the Pacers a chance tonight. Even throughout their losing streak, they’ve still allowed the fourth-fewest wide-open threes per game, while the Knicks have conceded the eighth-most. They’ve also generated among the most uncontested looks per game. The issue is that Indiana ranks just 24th in three-point percentage this season, and its best qualified shooter, Nembhard, has only made his triples at a rate 0.3 percentage points higher than expected. New York attempts tougher shots, but Towns and Bridges are both solidly above-average shooters in addition to the absent Brunson. The Knicks are also more poised to benefit from shooting luck normalization defensively.
Ultimately, betting against the spread for games with as extreme a line as this one is risky because it’s possible that New York pulls its starters and allows the Pacers’ backups to make a small rally for a backdoor cover. The safest bet, then, is on the Knicks’ defense, which has been hot as of late and will be without its sole weak link.
