Last July, Chelsea entered the Club World Cup final a sizable underdog to reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain, but that afternoon in New Jersey, the Blues managed their best performance of the season to pull off a 3-0 win and lift the trophy in the inaugural expanded edition.
Chelsea is one of the rare clubs to know what it feels like to beat PSG by three goals. That’s exactly what the Blues will need to do on Tuesday to keep their Champions League dream alive, as they trail Les Parisiens 5-2 after last Wednesday’s opening leg. The return leg will begin at 4 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local) at Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea is a +110 favorite to win the second leg (+800 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Paris is +195 (-1600 to advance). There are +330 odds that the teams will draw, which would send the defending champions through.
Chelsea vs. Paris Saint-Germain prediction, pick
The Blues have been better for much of the competition. They won five matches during the League Phase, including a 3-0 throttling of likely Spanish champions Barcelona, earning the right to bypass the Knockout Playoffs. Les Parisiens, meanwhile, settled for just two points from their final three League Phase fixtures and required a Khvicha Kvaratshkelia winner in the second leg just to edge past Ligue 1 rivals Monaco in the Knockout Playoffs. PSG also faces a stiffer battle than usual in its quest for Ligue 1, as RC Lens is just one point behind after 26 matches, and it’s arguable that (relative to expectations) Chelsea has had a better season.
There were plenty of positive takeaways for the Blues in the first leg despite the lopsided scoreline. They actually produced better chances than Les Parisiens, 1.57 to 0.9, and each team attempted nine shots. Chelsea also won more duels, had a higher tackle success rate, and completed more key passes than PSG did. From Club World Cup hero Cole Palmer, Moisés Caicedo, and Enzo Fernández in the midfield to Marc Cucurella and Malo Gusto building up play from the back as wing-backs, the Blues have the attacking talent to pull off the comeback. They’ve also been strong defensively in the Champions League, allowing the fourth-fewest expected goals and allowing the second-fewest touches in the box.
Realistically, Les Parisiens could win without scoring, but given the talent that they have, it’s hard to imagine them not finding the back of the net at least once. After all, they were absolutely clinical in the first leg, putting eight of their nine shots on target and scoring five of them, and even after factoring in some regression, their finishing numbers (the third-most goals minus expected goals) should help secure at least one, whether through Kvaratskhelia, Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembélé, Vitinha (their joint-leading scorer in the Champions League), or any of their young talents. Paris also completes passes at the highest rate and leads all teams in possession. To be fair, it has been slightly more gettable defensively, allowing more expected goals per match than Chelsea and giving up more goals than expected goals, but it has won both ground and aerial duels at extremely high rates, and its presses frequently lead to mistakes.
Both teams play relatively deliberate, clean football and complete passes at among the highest rates, so each team’s high press could prove to be a challenge, just like Les Parisiens’ did for the Blues in the first leg. It seems pretty likely that Chelsea will get on the board at some point, given the strength of its attack, but over the course of 90 minutes of football, PSG is just a little bit more clinical. Les Parisiens don’t necessarily need a win, but on their best day, they’re too good not to secure at least a draw.
