Get the drums and the shots of espresso ready, we’ve got another great matchup on Monday night! After a controversial thriller on Sunday night between the Dominican Republic and Team USA, the World Baseball Classic continues with the second semifinal, pitting unbeaten Team Italy against Venezuela, who is fresh off their upset of Japan in the Quarterfinals. With a trip to Tuesday’s Championship game on the line, it’s sure to be another tense and fired-up atmosphere in Miami at LoanDepot Park. First pitch will be at 8:00 p.m. ET on FS1, and let’s examine the matchup and see what to expect in this contest.
Venezuela lost to the Dominican Republic in Group Play but still made the Knockout Round. They drew a brutal matchup with defending champion Japan, but rallied to an 8-5 win after homers from Maikel Garcia and Wilyer Abreu. Italy is a perfect 5-0 in the tournament, upsetting the USA in Group Play and eliminating Puerto Rico, 8-6, on Saturday.
Venezuela is a -190 favorite on the Moneyline, while Italy is +155 to get the win and +105 at +1.5 on the run line. The over/under for total runs is 10. Let’s break down the odds and lines for both sides on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Venezuela vs. Italy prediction, preview
Venezuela will give the ball to Keider Montero of the Tigers. Montero was optioned to Triple-A to start the season just before heading to the WBC, but he looked solid in his first game of the WBC. He didn’t start against Nicaragua, but he came out of the bullpen behind Yoendrys Gómez. Montero threw three scoreless innings in the combined shutout, allowing three hits and striking out two.
The 25-year-old righty has some playoff experience for the Tigers and has worked both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. He went 5-3 in 20 games last season, working to a 4.37 ERA, 4.93 FIP and 72 strikeouts over 90 2/3 innings. Montero did struggle against lefties, though, allowing 10 of his 16 homers against left-handed hitters, who posted a .282 batting average and .384 wOBA against Montero.
The lefties in Italy’s lineup could pose a challenge for Montero, since the Italians lean heavily to that side. Against Puerto Rico, Italy started seven left-handed hitters, including the entire middle of their order, led by Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone and Dominic Canzone.
The matchup could actually be a favorable one for Italy, especially since Venezuela had to use all their top bullpen arms against Japan, leaving them needing innings from Montero.
On the other side, the Italians made a change on Monday morning and will start Monday’s game with Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola started against Mexico and went five scoreless innings with five strikeouts and four hits allowed last Wednesday to close out Pool Play. The Italians could stack Nola with their original starter, Michael Lorenzen, allowing the two starters to eat most of the innings to take pressure off the bullpen.
Lorenzen sparkled in his last start against Team USA with 4 2/3 shutout innings, allowing just two hits. He got the win in that upset and could be a dynamic arm out of the bullpen behind Nola, or be saved for the Championship Game and a potential rematch with the strong American lineup.
To get to that rematch, though, Nola and Itlay will need to silence a strong Venezuelan lineup. Ronald Acuna Jr., Wilyer Abreu, Luis Arraez, and Maikel Garcia have had strong tournaments so far, and the team has outscored opponents 34-17 in their five games.
After taking down Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Japan on Saturday, they’ll face an easier matchup on paper against Lorenzen and Team Italy on Monday. Both lineups have plenty of potential to score runs, which is why the run total for this game is even higher than yesterday’s between the big lineups of DR and Team USA.
Venezuela vs. Italy pick, best bet
Both teams have plenty of momentum coming into this matchup, but their pitching is a little thin after winning elimination games on Friday. The key advantage Italy has is Nola and Lorenzen’s experience and success in this tournament. If they can continue that success, it will give Italy a huge advantage on Monday night.
Montero’s struggles with lefties could be just the edge that Italy needs, and the undefeated Italians have looked strong throughout the tournament. Since they have the starting pitching advantage and have been playing so well, I like their chances to pull off another upset and take on Team USA for the championship on Monday. The run line is tempting, but I’m confident enough in Lorenzen outpitching Montero to take Italy straight-up to pull off the win.
