The Champions League has had its fair share of Cinderella stories over the years, with Ajax (semifinalists in 2018/19) arguably the most recent team to garner that description. The latest entry to that list is this season’s Bodø/Glimt, which looked all but eliminated after five weeks in the League Phase but now sits just 90 minutes away from the quarterfinals.
Bodø doesn’t even have to win the second leg of its Round of 16 tie against Sporting Lisbon, which is set to kick off on Tuesday at 1:45 p.m. ET (5:45 p.m. local) at the José Alvalade Stadium in the Portuguese capital. Glimt trounced Os Leões, 3-0, in the Arctic Circle last Wednesday.
Sporting is a -190 favorite to win the second leg (+400 to advance to the quarterfinals) at DraftKings Sportsbook, and Bodø is +400 (-650 to advance). There are +400 odds that the teams will draw, which would send the Norwegians through.
Sporting Lisbon vs. Bodo Glimt prediction, pick
Os Leões are arguably Cinderellas in their own right, as an upset over Paris Saint-Germain in Matchday 7 of the League Phase propelled them to a top-eight finish and an automatic bye to the Round of 16 despite entering the competition with elimination seemingly a real possibility. They were far more consistent than Glimt in the early stages of the competition, but since the Eliteserien season ended, Bodø has found the best version of itself, and its first-leg win shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise. Three of the wins have come on its turf field, but it’s hard to overlook road victories against Atlético Madrid and Inter Milan.
To be fair to Sporting, the first leg wasn’t entirely as lopsided as the score would suggest. Glimt won the expected-goal battle, but only by a 2.78-0.61 margin, and Os Leões attempted only one fewer shot than Bodø did. They’re bound to put more than 22% of their shots on target in the second leg, especially given the form that Luis Javier Suárez has had in the Primeira Liga. So far this campaign, they’ve been one of the Champions League’s more clinical finishing teams, ranking fourth in goals minus expected goals, so expecting another Nikita Haikin clean sheet might be too much to ask for. They’ve also allowed among the fewest expected goals, won both ground and aerial duels at an above-average rate, and they’ve been strong against set pieces, so the stout defense that could anchor a comeback is there.
For the tournament, Glimt’s defense has been bad enough that it could conceivably give up three goals. It has, after all, allowed more non-penalty expected goals than any other team, including by far the highest shot-in-box percentage. Bodø has also lost a majority of its ground and aerial duels, and it ranks second in errors leading to a shot. Haikin has been nothing short of brilliant, as Glimt leads the competition by far in goals minus expected goals defensively, but his heroics can only last for so long. But the issue for Sporting is Bodø’s attack: to amass the eighth-most expected goals and the most expected goals per shot while scoring on five of 17 fast-breaks is hard to do. Chemistry is real, and Glimt clearly has it.
On paper, Bodø’s lackluster defense and reliance on the offsides trap could be a problem against Os Leões’ deliberate style, but it’s not as if Sporting presses very much either, and it hasn’t done a particularly great job limiting fast-breaks. Os Leões are a good team, but they’re not quite as formidable on paper as Atlético or Inter. +400 is excellent value for a team that keeps providing reasons to believe.
