After several months of game-to-game inconsistency, the Los Angeles Lakers have finally made their charge up the standings, sweeping their five-game home stand and going 8-1 in their last nine games overall. They now hold pole position in a five-team race for the Western Conference’s third seed, and Luka Dončić is making a late charge for his first career MVP award.
The Lakers will have a difficult test tonight, when they begin a six-game road trip with a clash against the Houston Rockets at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Rockets currently trail Los Angeles by half a game, and the teams will rematch on Wednesday.
Since both teams have clinched at least a postseason appearance but still have a top-six seed to play for, each will have a mostly full slate of players available. The Lakers’ only absence will be reserve center Maxi Kleber (back), while Houston’s absences have all missed at least the last 10 games. The biggest name on the Rockets’ injury list is Alperen Şengün, who’s questionable with back pain, but Şengün’s injury isn’t thought to be serious.
Even though Şengün is questionable, Houston is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-130 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 225.5. Los Angeles is +110 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down the potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Houston Rockets preview, prediction
During their 8-1 stretch, the Lakers have have beaten some solid teams, including the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Dončić in particular has had an incredible last few weeks, averaging 34.1 points, 9.4 rebounds, 8.1 assists, and 2.0 steals per game in the first eight games of the month, and he had his first 50-point game in a Los Angeles uniform on Thursday. Austin Reaves returned to a full minutes load after the All-Star break and has averaged 21.1 points per game, including three straight 30-plus-point games.
Meanwhile, while the Lakers have found some consistency, the Rockets have continued to stagnate. They haven’t either strung together four wins or four losses in a row since December 25-January 1, going 21-15 overall since the start of 2026. Houston’s mediocrity hasn’t been Kevin Durant’s fault; he’s averaged 26.5 points and 6.2 rebounds per game on 55-42-91 shooting splits since the All-Star break and just dropped 30 on Saturday evening in Şengün’s absence. However, Reed Sheppard has had a couple of quiet shooting nights and Jabari Smith Jr. has missed some time.
Lakers at Rockets pick, best bet
Since the start of the month, Los Angeles ranks third in net rating. The fact that the Lakers’ offense has been efficient isn’t a surprise — Dončić, Reaves, and James are all brilliant scorers — but their eighth-ranked defense has been an unexpected virtue, as has the level of competition that they faced. Los Angeles has still has had some individual lapses, giving up 130 to the Chicago Bulls, but all in all, it has been cleaner since regaining full health. As of late, the Lakers have been far better than the Rockets, who have had a bottom-11 unit on both sides of the ball despite going 4-3. Houston has paired narrow wins against bottom-feeders with blowout defeats to the San Antonio Spurs and Nuggets.
Still, Los Angeles has continued to struggle in its weak areas even in its March hot streak. This month, the Lakers have allowed the seventh-most shot attempts in the restricted area and conceded the seventh-highest percentage, marks not entirely dissimilar to their season averages overall. On the other hand, the Rockets’ rim protection — a strength for much of the season — has collapsed, as they rank sixth-to-last in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area this month. That could be a huge problem against Los Angeles, which has done a slightly better job getting to the basket while remaining an elite finishing team. Houston should still have the overall edge inside, but it won’t be as large as it might’ve been before the start of the month.
The Rockets should still be able to dominate the glass. Even though they lost Steven Adams for the season on January 18 and played a game without Şengün, they’ve still ranked second in total rebounding percentage this month, while the Lakers have slipped to 22nd, in part due to extremely lackluster offensive rebounding. However, Los Angeles has really stepped up its transition play this month, ranking in the top 10 in both points off of turnovers and fast-break points, and Houston has struggled with giveaways all season. Neither team fouls much, but the Lakers should have a slight edge in that department as well, since they have been better at drawing contact.
Both teams could struggle to generate open looks, as each ranks in the bottom five in wide-open three-pointers attempted since the start of March, but Los Angeles — which features three players in the top 29 in three-point shooting percentage over expectation — should be more well-equipped to knock them down. The Lakers have also allowed slightly fewer wide-open threes per game than Houston has. Shooting luck normalization should favor the Rockets — they’ve allowed a league-high 45.7% on uncontested triples this month — but it doesn’t explain the entirety of Los Angeles’ improvement and Houston’s struggles. Denver and San Antonio both shot well in their wins over the Rockets, but perhaps more critically, they both won the turnover battle.
Home-court advantage isn’t insignificant, as it amounts to a swing of 6.9 points per 100 possessions in Houston’s favor and the Rockets haven’t lost at home since before the All-Star break. But their rim protection was the biggest edge that they held over the Lakers, and that advantage has been nonexistent in March. They project to lose the turnover battle against Los Angeles’ hustle. I’ll take the Lakers to pull off the upset.
