The full NCAA Tournament bracket has been established, and the stage is set for this year’s iteration of March Madness. What makes this event so special is the one-game elimination setting. Every year, new Cinderella teams capture the hearts of America and play much deeper in the tournament than their seeding would suggest possible.
Being able to pick out the correct underdogs is vital to avoid busting your brackets and capitalizing on some healthy odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. This article will take a look at five teams that have the talent to make some noise and a favorable path to pull off the first round upset and perhaps make a little bit of noise beyond.
Top March Madness Sleeper Teams:
5. Northern Iowa Panthers.
Entering as the 12th seed in the East region of the bracket, the Northern Iowa Panthers will be facing off with fifth-seeded St. John’s in the opening round. There is always an increased focus on the 5 vs. 12 matches, with the lower seed winning at a 35.6% rate, with there being at least one upset between these two seeds in the opening round in 33 of the last 39 tournaments. Northern Iowa went 23-12 this year and won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament to earn an NCAA Tournament opportunity. The Panthers are holding opponents to just 61.3 points per game, which is the best rate among all D1 teams. They have some offensive concerns, but St. John’s has some similar issues at times.
Northern Iowa enters as a +10.5-point underdog and holds +440 odds on the moneyline of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Expect this to be a defensive battle throughout, and if the Panthers can keep it within range throughout, they have a chance to steal it at the end. Expect their defense to make it a challenge for St. John’s to put them away and for UNI to keep this competitive from start to finish. If they are able to pull off the upset, the Panthers would likely earn a matchup with fourth-seeded Kansas, which is the same program they eliminated back in the 2010 NCAA Tournament.
4. South Florida Bulls
The South Florida Bulls went 24-8 and won the American Athletic Conference Tournament to earn their NCAA Tournament opportunity. They are the 11th seed in the East Region of the bracket and will face off with six-seeded Louisville. South Florida leans on a high-octane offensive attack, ranking eighth in the country in scoring at 88.3 points per game. It gets to the free-throw line at the best rate in the country, launches the 22nd-most three-pointers and ranks second in rebounds per game. Louisville is constructed similarly and is susceptible to getting in up-tempo matchups. The Cardinals closed the season losing four of their last eight games, and likely NBA lottery pick Mikel Brown Jr.’s status is uncertain after re-aggravating a back injury that has held him out the past four games.
If Louisville is to be without Brown and the 18.2 points and 4.7 assists he provides, the outlook for the Cardinals is much different. Oddsmakers appeared braced for this with South Florida just a 5.5-point underdog and holding +185 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. A looming matchup with Michigan State, if it is to pull off the upset, paints a bit of a concern for the +1200 odds of making the Sweet 16. However, the Bulls’ fast-paced style of play and strong scoring would challenge the Spartans as well. If the Bulls are hitting shots, they can beat anyone. Keep an eye on Mikel Brown Jr.’s availability and expect South Florida to be ready to bust some brackets.
3. Akron Zips
There was so much conversation surrounding Miami (OH) leading into the home stretch of this season, but it was the Akron Zips who picked up 29 wins of their own, including the final 10 games of the season and the MAC Tournament Championship to punch their ticket to the dance. The Zips also, frankly, have looked like a better team compared to Miami (OH) for the bulk of the season, despite their undefeated streak not lasting as long. Akron has a high-powered offense that scores at the seventh-best rate in the country at 88.4 points per game. It ranks fifth in offensive rating, 21st in three-point percentage and 10th in field-goal percentage.
Akron was a team I had circled as a potential Cinderella team before the brackets dropped, and it would have ranked higher on this list if it got a better draw. But the Zips hold the 12th seed in the Midwest Region and will be facing five-seeded Texas Tech. While the Red Raiders are far more battle-tested and have had an impressive season, they don’t carry the same level of defensive bite you would expect from the program. They rank 141st in opponents’ points allowed and 169th in defensive rating. If Akron can make this a track meet and pour in points at a high rate, Texas Tech will be vulnerable. The Zips are 7.5-point underdogs and hold +260 odds of pulling off the outright upset on DraftKings Sportsbook. Akron has won 19 of its last 20 and is playing with plenty of confidence. Expect the Zips to bring their best effort and attempt to earn an offensive showdown with Alabama, assuming they beat Hofstra, in the round of 32.
2. High Point Panthers
The High Point Panthers are 30-4 on the season and enter the NCAA Tournament on a 14-game winning streak. This includes winning the Big South Conference Tournament to officially punch their ticket for the second consecutive season. Last year’s team lost 75-63 to Purdue in the opening round in a 13 vs. 4 matchup, but they put up a respectable effort. While there has been plenty of roster turnover from last year, including a head coaching change, 21.0% of the minutes played from last year returned, and any level of experience does matter. This year’s High Point team finished the season ranked fourth in the country in scoring at 90.0 points per game, third in offensive rating and 79th in opponents’ points allowed. It also led the country in steals on defense and ranked 17th in turnovers per game.
High Point enters as the 12 seed in the West Region of the bracket and will take on fifth-seeded Wisconsin in the opening round. The Badgers have had an impressive overall season, but they are dependent on their offensive production for success. They rank 35th in the country in scoring, but 235th in opponent points allowed. While the level of competition has been lighter, High Point has shown higher levels of defensive impact. It is playing with extreme confidence and will not look intimidated in this matchup. Expect High Point to at least cause a scare and keep this matchup competitive throughout. It enters as 9.5-point underdogs and holds +360 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. If it is to produce a win, it would take on the winner of Arkansas vs. Hawai’i, and High Point’s +3000 odds of making the Sweet 16 have also caught my eye.
1. VCU Rams
The VCU Rams enter the NCAA Tournament as the 11th seed in the South region of the bracket. This is a tough seed based on the quality of performance they have put forth this season, and the matchup with six-seeded North Carolina is difficult. But the Rams being just +2.5-point underdogs and holding +120 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook is a bit indicative of oddsmakers believing in the Rams more than the selection committee. Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad went 26-7 this season and won the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament to officially punch its ticket to the dance.
North Carolina is a tough opponent, but it will also be playing without its best player, as Caleb Wilson is shut down for the year with a broken thumb. The Rams have played inspired basketball as of late, winning 16 of their last 17 matchups, with the lone loss coming against then-No. 18 Saint Louis. North Carolina is coming off back-to-back losses in which it greatly struggled, and Martelli has some NCAA Tournament experience himself after taking Bryant to this stage last year. VCU also has 24.5% of the roster returning from last year with some NCAA Tournament experience of its own. Its path is a bit more competitive than one would hope, but VCU has looked like a team with deep NCAA Tournament potential for quite some time. Facing a UNC team without its best player and looking really concerning in the ACC Tournament, I like the Rams to pull off the opening round upset.
If it is to accomplish this, VCU would earn a second-round matchup with the winner of three-seeded Illinois and 14-seeded Penn. Ivy League teams can sometimes bother power conferences, and Illinois has some weaknesses. Brad Underwood’s squad has a wide gap for when it looks its best and when it looks its worst, and if either Penn or VCU catch it on the right day, this is a team that is vulnerable for an upset. I am believing in the quality of basketball VCU has put on the floor over the past two months and backing the +750 odds of a Sweet 16 appearance.
