After a month of oddball tracks, Las Vegas is the first real mile-and-a-half test of 2026, and it’s going to tell us whether the Toyotas can keep dominating and whether Hendrick has the new Chevy body figured out.
For DraftKings Sportsbook NASCAR Picks from the lower series, follow @Race4thePrize on X.
Race Winner — Pennzoil 400
Kyle Larson (+330)
Two wins, five top-fives, and a 7.9 average finish in eight Gen 7 starts at Las Vegas. His 2024 spring win was a masterclass where he led the majority of the race and held off Tyler Reddick after a late restart. The fall wasn’t as kind (11th), but he bounced back with a runner-up last fall, running a 2.91 average running position all day. The pattern is clear: when Larson has a car at Las Vegas, he doesn’t just compete, he dominates. His results here read like a highlight reel — second, 35th, second, first, first, 11th, ninth, second — and that 35th in 2022 is the only time he’s finished outside the top 11.
The Hendrick cars showed speed in Group 2 practice, and Kevin Harvick said on the broadcast that this weekend shapes up as a Gibbs-Hendrick battle. Larson was eighth on the speed chart, but the broadcast reminded everyone that the Group 2 track was slower and hotter than Group 1, and he was only three-tenths off the fastest time of the session. The new Chevy Camaro body has been a question mark on high-speed downforce tracks all season, and this is the first real test at a mile-and-a-half. If the body works, Larson wins. At +330, the books are pricing in some Chevy uncertainty, but this is the best Las Vegas driver in the Cup Series at his best track. The uncertainty is the value.
Ross Chastain (+2800)
A 7.6 average finish and five top-fives in eight Gen 7 starts at Las Vegas. That’s the best average finish of any driver in the field at this track, better than Larson’s 7.9. He’s never won here, which is why he’s +2800 instead of +500, but the consistency is remarkable: third, second, 12th, fifth, fourth, seventh, fifth, 23rd. One bad result in eight starts. His intermediate track average across a dozen races is 8.9, which confirms this isn’t a Las Vegas-only phenomenon — Chastain is an elite mile-and-a-half driver in this car.
He went out late in Group 1 practice deliberately, waiting for the early grip to wear off so he could get a realistic race-pace read on his car. That’s a team thinking about Sunday, not Saturday. Starting 17th isn’t ideal, but Chastain has moved forward before and moved drivers to move forward before. At +2800, you’re getting the most consistent Las Vegas driver in the field at a number that assumes he can’t win. He can’t win most weeks. But a 7.6 average finish means he’s always in the conversation when things fall his way, and at this price, you only need it to happen once.
William Byron (+800)
Byron won the 2023 spring race here in dominant fashion, sweeping both stages and running a 1.70 average running position for the entire day. He has a 10.0 average finish with four top-fives and six top-10s in eight Las Vegas starts, and his intermediate average across a dozen races is 9.9. The results here read fifth, 13th, first, seventh, 10th, fourth, fourth, 36th — and that 36th last fall was a late-race incident after he ran a 3.04 average running position all day. Remove the wreck and his Las Vegas average drops to 6.3.
Byron is the Hendrick driver nobody talks about at Las Vegas because Larson gets all the attention, but their numbers here are closer than the odds suggest. Byron’s 10.0 average versus Larson’s 7.9 translates to a +800 versus +330 gap that looks like a market inefficiency, especially since Byron has been the more consistent of the two recently — back-to-back fourths in the 2025 spring and 2024 fall races. He was seventh in Group 2 practice on the hotter, slower track, and the Hendrick crew chiefs told Larry McReynolds they feel good about their speed this weekend. At +800, you’re getting a former Las Vegas winner with elite intermediate numbers at more than double Larson’s price. If Hendrick has the Chevy body figured out, Byron is the leverage play on the same speed.
