Selection Sunday has arrived, and the NCAA Tournament is right around the corner. But teams will make their final impressions on the committee as conference tournaments conclude. Facing off in the Atlantic 10 Championship, the Dayton Flyers will take on the VCU Rams.
VCU took both meetings during the regular season, picking up a 99-73 victory at home on Feb. 6 before defeating the Flyers, 68-62, on the road on March 6.
VCU enters as a 2.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Dayton sits as a +124 underdog. The game total is set at 139.5 points.
Dayton vs. VCU preview
Dayton is 23-10 this season and has gone 13-6 in A-10 play. The program reached Sunday’s finale with playoff wins over St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis. The Flyers’ postseason success comes after falling to VCU in the regular-season finale, which snapped a six-game winning streak. They are 16-17 against the spread and have fallen under the game total in 22 of their 33 games played.
Anthony Grant’s squad ranks 207th nationally in scoring and offensive rating, 198th in field-goal percentage, and 172nd in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Flyers sit 71st in points allowed, 54th in defensive rating, 145th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 285th in opponent three-point percentage.
Javon Bennett leads the team with 16.3 points and three assists per game. De’Shayne Montgomery adds 13.6 points and four rebounds, while Amael L’Etang contributes 12.3 points and a team-high six boards. Jordan Derkack has been relatively quiet this season, but exploded for 28 points off the bench in Saturday’s win over Saint Louis. Keonte Jones, Bryce Heard, and Jaiun Simon also play notable roles in the rotation.
VCU is 26-7 with a 16-3 mark in conference play. The Rams defeated Duquesne and Saint Joseph’s thus far in the tournament, entering Sunday’s finale on a five-game winning streak. They’ve also won 15 of their last 16 games. VCU is 16-17 against the spread and has fallen under the game total in 18 of 33 games.
Terrence Hill Jr. headlines the scoring with 14.3 points per game, while Lazar Djokovic adds 13.8 points and a team-high 5.5 rebounds. Jadrian Tracey, Brandon Jennings, and Nyk Lewis each add over eight points per game, and Michael Belle and Ahmad Nowell play notable roles, as well.
Phil Martelli Jr.’s squad ranks 51st nationally in scoring, 45th in offensive rating, 115th in field-goal percentage, and 39th in three-point percentage. Defensively, the Rams sit 125th in points allowed, 93rd in defensive rating, 113th in opponent field-goal percentage, and 138th in opponent three-point percentage.
Dayton vs. VCU pick, best bet
VCU has gotten the better of Dayton in both matchups this season, and I expect the same result with an NCAA Tournament bid on the table.
In the first matchup, the Rams played their brand of fast-paced basketball, putting up 99 points, leading for 94% of the game, and stretching their lead to as large as 35 points. Dayton came prepared for the rematch, holding VCU to just 68 points — its third-lowest output of the year — in a back-and-forth battle. Still, the Rams held on for a six-point win and showcased their ability to shine in a defensive-minded battle.
VCU has been on a tear of late, winning 15 of its last 16 matchups. While the Rams were just 8-8 against the spread during this stretch, they covered in both matchups with Dayton.
Expect VCU to pack an offensive punch that Dayton can’t block, especially from around the perimeter. The Flyers deserve credit for finishing the season strong, but the Rams can reach a higher ceiling far more consistently. They beat Dayton by at least 3.5 points in both regular-season matchups; expect the Rams to follow suit as they punch their ticket to March Madness.
