Conference tournaments continue on Saturday across the college basketball landscape, with the semifinals in the SEC picture tipping off at 1 p.m. EST. The Vanderbilt Commodores take on the reigning NCAA champions with a matchup against the Florida Gators, which should provide plenty of drama as these AP-ranked sides square off at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. Which one will punch a ticket to the conference final?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Vanderbilt vs. Florida on Saturday, March 14.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida prediction, preview
Vanderbilt Commodores
The Commodores enter as the No. 22 team in the AP Poll, sitting 25-7 overall and 12-7 in SEC play. They ended the regular season with a pair of wins, including one over No. 25 Tennessee, which they beat once again in their first matchup of the conference tournament. Now, they draw a tough matchup against the top team in the bracket having gone 8-6 against fellow Quad 1 sides.
Vanderbilt comes in at 13th in the KenPom rankings thanks to a +26.83 NETRTG. This roster leans heavily on its offense with 86.9 PPG and the No. 8 ORTG in Division I hoops, shooting 47.9% from the field and 35.4% from three. The Commodores average 16.4 assists as well, producing a 1.685 AST/TO ratio that ranks 16th in the sport as well. Outside of the offensive production, they’re much more average, though. Their 35.8 rebounds per game are respectable, and they allow 75.1 PPG to opponents. Vanderbilt does rank 28th in DRTG and falls 50th in opponent eFG%, but the program is also prone to getting into some shootout-type game scripts.
Tyler Tanner’s 19.2 points and 5.2 assists a game are team-highs for the Commodores, and his role is understandably massive with 33 minutes a night. Duke Miles posts 15.9 points and 4.2 assists as well and produced 30 points in Vandy’s first tournament game. Tyler Nickel is the only other player scoring double-digit points with 13.7, but three other contributors score at least 9.0 PPG. One of those is Devin McGlockton, who pitches in 9.9 points with a team-high 6.9 rebounds.
Florida Gators
On the opposite side of the matchup, the reigning NCAA title winners are a dominant force. The Gators are 26-6 overall and 14-1 in SEC play, riding 12 straight victories into this matchup. They’re ranked at No. 4 in the AP Poll and are the top seed in the SEC tourney, downing No. 9 seed Kentucky in their first outing on this stage. With significant momentum heading into Saturday’s semifinal, there’s plenty of reason to believe Florida repeats as SEC champs.
The Gators sit fourth in the KenPom rankings with a NETRTG of +35.23. Florida has one of the nation’s most potent offenses, scoring 87.7 PPG with the 11th-best ORTG of any team. The program shoots an impressive 48.2% overall, and while a 31.3% mark from beyond the arc isn’t great, the group does get to the line plenty with 25.0 FTA/GM (23rd). The Gators issue 16.9 assists a night with a 1.450 AST/TO ratio, and they’re the nation’s top rebounding team with 45.5 per outing as well. Defensively, they give up 71.7 PPG, rank fourth in DRTG and allow the 11th-lowest eFG% in college hoops. They’re also 16th in blocks with 5.1 per game.
Florida’s Thomas Haugh scores a team-best 17.2 points while pulling down 6.1 rebounds, and Alex Condon isn’t far behind with 14.8 points and 7.6 boards. Xaivian Lee and Boogie Fland produce 11.6 points apiece with 4.2 and 3.5 assists each, too. However, it’s Rueben Chinyelu who paces the roster with an NCAA-high 11.7 rebounds to complement his 11.4 points a night. Urban Klavzar also plays a major role in the rotaion.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Florida as a 7.5-point favorite with -395 odds on the Moneyline. Vanderbilt is a +310 ML underdog with the game total set at 160.5 combined points.
Last time these teams met this season, it ended in a 98-94 win for Florida at home in what was one of the most exciting games of the SEC schedule. Defense was mostly an afterthought in that one as both teams shot a hair above 50% from the field and between 36% and 38% from three, but there’s one key factor in that one. Florida won the rebounding battle 36 to 22, but the Gators were fairly sloppy with possession and coughed the ball up with 10 turnovers to the Commodores’ four.
This time out, Florida is likely to be more careful with the ball and may very well dominate the glass again. The Gators should win this one especially given the momentum they’ve showed over the last month-plus. After winning 11 of their last 12 games by at least eight points, I do like them to cover in this matchup. It may be close since Vandy is such a formidable offense as well, but ultimately, there’s a reason that Florida is one of the top teams to take the entire NCAA Tournament and potentially repeat.
