UConn vs. St. John’s College Basketball prediction, preview
If you followed Big East basketball this season, we’re getting exactly what we deserve on Saturday night at Madison Square Garden. UConn versus St. John’s round three, for all the marbles.
The teams split the regular season series, with the home team winning each game. The Red Storm won at MSG back in early February by nine points, and then the Huskies got revenge in a big way — a 32-point home win in which the Johnnie’s didn’t make a field goal for over 17 minutes to end the game.
Both teams are elite on the defensive side of the ball, ranking top-15 on KenPom in defensive efficiency. The Huskies hold the edge offensively, ranking 25th in efficiency, compared to 45th for the Red Storm. Both teams are also strong rebounding the ball, but it’s UConn that holds the slight edge there once again.
St. John’s gets to play in its home arena here, but we should have an electric crowd for both sides with a Big East crown on the line. I fully expect this game to come down to style of play. Whoever dictates pace should win the game.
The Red Storm rank 61st in adjusted tempo, and will look to speed this game up like they did when they beat UConn. St. John’s forced 15 turnovers in the first matchup between these teams, including nine from starting point guard Silas Demary alone. That allowed the Johnnies to get out in transition and get easy buckets. Despite UConn shooting better from the field and beyond the arc, St. John’s won the game based off dictating the style of play.
Dan Hurley made sure that his team did not allow the same the second time around. The Huskies only turned the ball over five times in their dominant win, and were swarming on defense to limit the Red Storm to an absurd 20% from the field. UConn wound up allowing just 40 total points in the game. That performance is nearly impossible to replicate, but it’s certainly the blue print to slowing the game down and dictating the style the Huskies want to play.
This game should be an all-out war between two physical teams. It should be a joy to watch. While St. John’s will be looking to avenge an embarrassing loss the last time these teams played, I think UConn’s emphasis on protecting the ball will remain in place. I trust the Huskies more to be able to play their style, and limit the Red Storm from getting out in transition by cutting down on mistakes. I’ll back UConn to stop Rick Pitino from collecting consecutive Big East Tournament titles.
