Tipping off in a semifinal matchup of the American Conference basketball tournament, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane are facing off with the Wichita State Shockers.
These teams faced off twice already during the regular season, splitting the pair of matchups. Tulsa picked up a 93-83 victory in the first matchup before Wichita State evened things up with an 81-77 win in the most recent matchup on February 14th.
Looking at the odds for today’s matchup, Tulsa is a narrow 1.5-point favorite and holds -122 odds of winning outright on DraftKings Sportsbook. Wichita State holds +102 odds of getting the outright win, with the game total set at 152.5.
Tulsa vs. Wichita State prediction, preview
Tulsa holds a 26-6 record this season and has gone 13-5 in American Conference play. The Golden Hurricane enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak, however, it took triple-overtime to defeat North Texas in their opening conference tournament matchup yesterday. On the season, Tulsa has gone 16-14 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in 21 of its 30 qualifying matchups.
The Golden Hurricane rank 15th in the country in scoring, averaging 86.1 points per game. Eric Konkol’s squad also ranks fifth in offensive rating, 37th in field goal percentage, and 12th in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 72.8 points per game against Tulsa, which ranks 144th in the country. The program also ranks 112th in defensive rating, 76th in opponent field goal percentage, and 100th in opponent three-point percentage.
David Green headlines the scoring for the team with 16.4 points, along with 4.6 rebounds and 40% shooting on three-point attempts. Tyler Riley adds 15.0 points and 4.3 assists, while Miles Barnstable pitches in 14.6 points and leads the conference with 41.7% three-point efficiency. Ade Popoola is the lone other player to average in double figures, with 10.4 points and 4.1 rebounds while shooting 40.8% from the perimeter, while Jaylen Lawal and Tyler Behrend also play notable roles.
Wichita State is 21-10 on the season and has gone 13-5 in conference play. The Shockers enter this matchup on a six-game winning streak and have won 11 of their past 13. On the season, Wichita State has gone 20-10 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in 17 of their qualifying 30 games played.
Paul Mills’ squad is scoring 78.3 points per game, which ranks 117th in the country. Wichita State also ranks 91st in offensive rating, 228th in field goal percentage, and 187th in three-point efficiency. Defensively, opponents are scoring 70.5 points per game against the Shockers, which ranks 89th in the country. Wichita State also ranks 76th in defensive rating, 79th in opponent field goal percentage, and 40th in opponent three-point percentage.
Kenyon Giles headlines the production for the Shockers, posting averages of 19.4 points while shooting 38.0% on three-point attempts. Karon Boyd is the lone other player to average double figures with 10.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Will Berg leads the team with 8.2 rebounds per game along with his 8.7 points, while TJ Williams and Mike Gray Jr. also average over eight points per contest. Emmanuel Okorafor, Dillon Battie, and Dre Kindell also play notable roles.
Tulsa vs. Wichita State pick, best bet
During the first matchup between these two teams, Wichita State’s defense was unable to make enough of an impact. Tulsa poured in 93 points, shot 60% from the field and won the rebounding battle 38-29. The Golden Hurricane stretched the lead as large as 19 in what turned out to be a 10-point victory.
In the second matchup between these two conference opponents, Wichita State put forth a tougher effort and limited Tulsa to 77 points. The Shockers out-rebounded the Golden Hurricane 42-34. Despite Tulsa leading for 84% of the matchup and Wichita State shooting just 2-for-14 on three-point attempts, the Shockers were able to outscore Tulsa 11-5 in the final 4:51 of play to get the win.
In the wider scale of the matchups, Tulsa has looked like the better team for the majority of minutes. But needing to play for the second consecutive day after going to triple overtime yesterday is a difficult ask. David Green and Ade Popoola each logged 51 minutes yesterday, with all five starters playing 36+ minutes. Tulsa also had not played an overtime game all season before yesterday.
Wichita State has rest on its side, as the group last played on March 7. The Shockers are 20-10 against the spread this season, and they are 6-2 ATS when they have 4+ days off. In contrast, Tulsa is 16-14 against the spread on the season, but 9-10 in conference play with last night included.
Expect tired legs to be a factor in this matchup and for Wichita State to make a clear effort to bring full defensive intensity to maximize this. For Tulsa to get the victory, the group needs to put plenty of points on the board and make this a shootout. Tulsa will keep things competitive and has plenty of shooting on its roster that will not allow Wichita State to take a second off. But expect the Golden Hurricane to run out of gas in the second half, with the mileage on their legs in mind. Wichita State opened as a slight favorite, and the line has gradually shifted in Tulsa’s favor as tip-off has gotten closer. I believe oddsmakers got it right the first time and am backing Wichita State to beat Tulsa for the second time this season to advance to the conference tournament final.
