Saturday’s college basketball slate is a key one that sees a litany of conference semifinals and championship games across the landscape. The Mountain West crowns a winner this evening as the SDSU Aztecs duel the Utah State Aggies in a clash between the two top seeds in the conference. With tip-off scheduled for 6 p.m. EST, we’re getting ready for the action here.
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for SDSU vs. Utah State in the Mountain West Championship Game on Saturday, March 14.
SDSU vs. Utah State prediction, preview
SDSU Aztecs
The No. 2 seed in the Mountain West, SDSU has racked up a 22-10 overall record and strong 15-6 mark in conference play throughout the year. The Aztecs closed the regular season with a win and have since downed No. 7 Colorado State and No. 3 New Mexico on the way to this MWC Championship appearance, though last night’s game was decided by just two points in a very tight finish.
The Aztecs sit 46th in the KenPom rankings with a +16.88 NETRTG. They favor a defensive identity — they sit 18th in DRTG nationally, allow 71.3 PPG to opponents, holding them to the 15th-lowest FG% and ranking 10th in opponent turnovers. That defense gives them a shot in most matchups, though their 34.6 rebounds per game are just average. The SDSU offense produces 77.3 PPG while shooting an efficient 47.0% overall along with 34.6% from deep. As for assists, the Aztecs average 14.8 a night with a 1.221 AST/TO ratio.
The roster is paced by Reese Dixon-Waters, who posts 12.8 PPG. BJ Davis scores 10.8 PPG and shoots 37.1% from deep, while Miles Byrd averages 10.5 points with a team-high 4.7 rebounds. Elzie Harrington and Magoon Gwath also play key roles.
Utah State Aggies
The opposing bench is occupied by the top seed in the MWC, Utah State. The program has looked like one of the best in college basketball this season with a 27-6 overall record and 15-5 mark in conference play. The Aggies easily downed No. 8 UNLV by 20 points to open this tourney, then beat No. 5 Nevada by 13 last night. Now, they could be positioned for their fourth consecutive appearance in the NCAA Tournament.
Utah State ranks 32nd per KenPom with a NETRTG of +20.30. The Aggies are strong on both ends but are particularly capable on offense with 82.0 PPG and the 29th-best ORTG. They shoot 49.6% overall, 15th in the nation, as well as 35.3% from beyond the arc. They also post 17.2 assists with a 1.601 AST/TO ratio, both of which fall top 30 in the country. Utah State’s rebounding is a relative weakness with just 34.2 boards on average, but the program does allow just 71.1 PPG with the 21st-most opponent turnovers and the 46th-best DRTG.
There are two key standouts for the Aggies. MJ Collins Jr. averages 17.5 PPG as the primary scorer alongside Mason Falslev, who posts 16.1 points with 5.8 rebounds and 3.0 assists to complement a 41.8% 3P%. While Utah State doesn’t have any other double-digit scorers, Karson Templin, Kolby King and Drake Allen all play major roles here.
SDSU vs. Utah State pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite with -148 odds on the Moneyline. SDSU holds +124 odds of an outright upset with the game total set at 145.5 combined points.
The results in two meetings between these sides make today a very interesting affair. The Aggies took the first matchup 71-66 on their own home floor, but fell to the Aztecs 89-72 in San Diego in the second outing. The first game was an ugly battle in which both teams shot below 41% from the field and 25% or worse from three. In the second, SDSU’s shooting percentages grew to 54.5% overall and 43.8% from distance, while Utah State struggled again with a 40.4% FG% and 29.6% 3P%.
Have the Aztecs found the answer to stopping this opponent’s offensive prowess? It’s possible, but the results from Utah State have been better overall this season. The program has gone 3-4 against Quad 1 opponents while SDSU sits 3-6 in similar matchups. Beyond that, the Aggies’ attack can pour on the points in a hurry in a way that their opponent simply cannot do. It’s unlikely that they shoot so poorly for a third time against SDSU, so I like the offense to look more like its usual self and assert its dominance today.
With that in mind, we’re going with Utah State straight up, even if the odds don’t make for the biggest payout of today’s betting cards.
