Another day, another terrific Big Ten Tournament showdown. Saturday’s action in Chicago continues this afternoon, with UCLA (23-10, 13-7) battling Purdue (25-8, 13-7). The Bruins picked up a signature win last night, upsetting Michigan State. As for the Boilermakers, winning a conference title would set this group up nicely heading into March Madness.
Purdue enters Saturday as 7.5-point favorites (-112) over UCLA. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Tip off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for today’s game between the Bruins and the Boilermakers.
UCLA vs. Purdue prediction, preview
Despite their reputation as a gritty, hard-nosed team, the Bruins are a well-rounded squad. Their 124.0 adjusted offensive efficiency is the 21st-best mark in all of college basketball. That includes a sparkling 38.3% three-point percentage, tops in the Big Ten. With that being said, head coach Mick Cronin prefers a slowed down, ugly affair. UCLA operates at a 64.8 adjusted tempo, 317th in the nation. That’s not a problem if the shots are falling. However, this group isn’t as comfortable playing from behind.
Tyler Bilodeau is the top dog for the Bruins; he leads the team with 17.6 points per game. Unfortunately, the big man suffered an ankle sprain during the team’s win over Michigan State. After the game, Cronin told reporters that it would take “a modern miracle” for Bilodeau to play on Saturday.
With that being said, four other UCLA players are putting up at least 11.0 points a night. If there’s a downside, there isn’t a ton of depth in Los Angeles. Only seven members of the roster (including Bilodeau) are averaging more than 15.0 minutes per game. Dependence on the starting lineup has only increased during these intense postseason matchups. Defensively, the Bruins tend to give up a ton of shots from long distance. They’ve allowed 44.5 three-point attempts per field goals attempted, 329th on KenPom.
In comparison, Purdue loves firing away from beyond the arc. The program has notched a 38.2% three-point percentage, 17th-best in the nation. In addition, the Boilermakers have posted college basketball’s 11th-best effective field goal percentage (57.7%) and 17th-best turnover percentage (13.7%). Those numbers are a direct reflection of stellar guard play. Senior Braden Smith has been his usual terrific self, averaging 14.3 points and a conference-leading 9.0 assists per game. He’s joined by fellow guard Fletcher Loyer (13.8 PPG) and center Trey Kaufman-Renn (13.5 PPG, 8.6 REB). Together, they form what might be the sport’s most dangerous trio.
To the shock of no one, Purdue ranks second on KenPom in adjusted offensive efficiency. Defensively, this crew isn’t bad by any means, but there’s clear room for improvement. That’s especially true on the perimeter; teams are averaging 45.5 three-point attempts per field goals attempted (337th on KenPom). Much like UCLA, the Bruins also operate at a glacial pace. That resulted in a 69-67 Bruins victory when these teams last met on January 20th.
UCLA vs. Purdue pick, best bet
The biggest weakness for UCLA is a penchant for giving up three-pointers. However, the same is also true for the Boilermakers. Purdue has been shaky at best recently, going 4-4 over its last eight outings. In comparison, the Bruins come into this one having earned four straight wins. Even if Bilodeau can’t take the floor, I expect Cronin and company to stay within striking distance this afternoon.
