Conference tournaments continue on Saturday across the college basketball landscape. The semifinal round of the Atlantic-10 bracket begins at 1 p.m. EST as the No. 4 Dayton Flyers take on the No. 1 Saint Louis Billikens, who were ranked in the national AP Poll earlier this season. Will the favorites advance to the final, or can the Flyers pull off an upset in Pittsburgh?
Here’s a prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Dayton vs. Saint Louis on Saturday, March 14.
Dayton vs. Saint Louis prediction, preview
Dayton Flyers
At 22-10 and 13-6 in A-10 play, Dayton’s put forth a quality campaign to this point and secured the No. 4 seed in this tournament. The program downed St. Bonaventure 68-63 to open its tournament run and now faces the top seed in the field, but it’s capable of keeping this competitive.
Overall, the Flyers are 80th in the KenPom rankings with a +10.73 NETRTG. They’re one of those teams that slows the pace to a halt, ranking 197th in adjusted tempo and sitting 350th in FGA/GM. The offense produces 75.1 PPG while shooting 45.3% overall and 33.9% from deep, while it also gets to the charity stripe 25.3 times a game (19th-most). They average 14.4 assists with a 1.187 AST/TO ratio, and the team ranks 139th in ORTG as a whole. The slow pace benefits defensive output more, ranking 34th in DRTG while allowing 70.1 PPG. As far as rebounding goes, the Flyers pull down just 32.5 per outing.
Dayton’s roster is led by Javon Bennett and his 15.9 points and 3.0 assists a game, though his shooting splits aren’t the best with a 38.6% FG%. Deshayne Montgomery produces 14.0 points and 4.0 rebounds along with a very impressive 2.3 steals. Amael L’Etang scores 12.3 points a night with 5.8 rebounds, too.
Saint Louis Billikens
The top seed in the A-10 tournament, Saint Louis has consistently looked like one of the best teams in the nation at its own level. A 28-5 overall record and 16-3 mark in conference play spark plenty of confidence, though an 88-81 win over George Washington to begin the tournament probably shouldn’t have been as close as it was.
The Billikens are 39th in the KenPom rankings with a +18.66 NETRTG. They’re one of the best offensive teams in the nation, producing 86.9 PPG with hyper-efficient splits of a 51.0% FG% and 40.9% 3P%, the fifth and second-best marks of any team. They’re also ninth in 3PM/GM with 10.9, 10th in assists with 18.2 and have a 1.465 AST/TO ratio. On the glass, the Billikens are also strong with 39.4 boards per game (20th). The team’s ORTG comes out to 45th, and the DRTG falls 41st as they give up 70.3 PPG and force opponents into the third-lowest eFG% at 44.7%.
Robbie Avila leads Saint Louis with 12.6 points and 4.1 assists per contest, shooting 42.3% from deep in the process. Dion Brown pitches in 11.2 points with a team-best 5.5 boards, while Trey Green and Amari McCottry average 10.9 and 10.3 PPG each. Quentin Jones and Ishan Sharma play plenty of minutes as well.
Dayton vs. Saint Louis pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Saint Louis as a 6.5-point favorite with -245 odds on the Moneyline. Dayton is a +200 ML underdog with the game total set at 148.5 combined points.
These squads met twice this season, with the first ending in a 102-71 blowout in Saint Louis’ favor before Dayton asserted its revenge with a 77-62 victory. Both wins came on the respective victors’ home courts, so a neutral site should provide an added twist in this one.
This matchup should fall somewhere between those two, and while a massive blowout isn’t likely in the cards, a statement win for the Billikens feels much more likely than a loss. The game they lost to Dayton saw one of their worst shooting outputs of the season at just 40.0% overall and 23.8% from deep. As one of the most efficient teams in the entire country, a repeat of that performance does seem unlikely.
The Billikens play fast at 23rd in adjusted tempo while the Flyers drag the pace down, but they should likely meet in the middle in this one. The difference is that if the tempo gets sped up, Dayton probably doesn’t have what it takes to stay comfortable and match its opponent in offensive output. Conversely, Saint Louis typically doesn’t waste shot opportunities and can make the most of a low-volume game to still win even if the Flyers dictate the pace of play. That’s why I’m more than comfortable taking the Billikens to cover, especially since they’re the better team to begin with.
