The Indian Wells Open is on to the semifinals. The second men’s semifinal of the day sees the World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz face the World No. 11 Daniil Medvedev. The match is expected to begin around 6:00 p.m. ET, following the conclusion of Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev.
Alcaraz is -559 on the moneyline on the DraftKings Sportsbook, while Medvedev is +426. This is my best bet to target for the Alcaraz vs. Medvedev match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Preview
Daniil Medvedev’s game has seen a massive renaissance over the past six months. In 2022, Medvedev became the No. 1 player in the world. He won a US Open and was alongside Novak Djokovic, holding off the young up-and-comers, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Medvedev’s game started to see a bit of a decline in 2024, but in 2025, his game completely blew up. Medvedev got bounced from the second round of the Australian Open, then in the first round of the next three majors. After losing in the first round of the US Open as a former champion, he fired his long-time coach, Gilles Cervara. Medvedev hired former Australian Open champion Thomas Johannson to be his new coach.
Since that coaching change, Medvedev’s game has started to look like it did when he was the best player in the world. Less than two months after the US Open, Medvedev won the Almaty Open. To start off 2026, he won the Brisbane International title and finally broke his awful run in Grand Slams, making it to the fourth round of the Australian Open. Medvedev then won his second title of the year in Dubai in the lead-up to Indian Wells. Now, he is back in the Indian Wells semifinals. This is one of Medvedev’s best venues in recent years. He has now made it to at least the semifinals in four straight years at Indian Wells.
Carlos Alcaraz is untouchable as the best player in the world. So far in 2026, he has played in just three events. The first was the Australian Open, which he won to become the youngest man in history to complete the career Grand Slam. In his next event, he won his first-ever Qatar Open, starting the year two for two. Now, Alcaraz is back in the semifinals at Indian Wells. He won the title here at Indian Wells in both 2023 and 2024, then lost in the semifinals to Jack Draper in 2025. Alcaraz wants to take that title back and prove that he is the king of Tennis Paradise.
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is for Daniil Medvedev to cover the spread of +1.5 sets. Medvedev and Alcaraz have had some great battles in the past. They have faced off in two Wimbledon semifinals, a US Open semifinal and two Indian Wells finals. Both of Alcaraz’s Indian Wells titles, in 2023 and 2024, came against Medvedev. Alcaraz is looking to continue his dominance in this matchup, while Medvedev wants revenge. My money is on Medvedev to make this a real fight and push the match to three sets. Ultimately, Alcaraz would be the favorite to win that third set, but with Medvedev’s current form, he has a real chance to pull off the upset.
Carlos Alcaraz has won four straight matches against Daniil Medvedev. However, Medvedev’s current form is the best it’s been since 2023. That was the same year that Medvedev defeated Alcaraz in the US Open semifinals. While Alcaraz’s game is on an outrageous level and Medvedev hasn’t proven himself on a stage this big in a long time, Medvedev does know that he can challenge Alcaraz. Few players in the world know that they have the talent to beat Alcaraz and have the experience of doing so on a big stage. Medvedev is one of those players and should find a way to win a set in this match.
