Tonight’s NBA schedule is a doozy, with some lopsided matchups across the slate and an extensive injury report depending on where you look. While the Utah Jazz continue their tanking endeavor in the late window, the Portland Trail Blazers are still searching for a shot at the Play-In Tournament as the 10th seed in the Western Conference.
Here’s a Jazz vs. Trail Blazers prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s contest.
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers prediction, preview
Utah Jazz
While the Jazz added Jaren Jackson Jr. via trade just ahead of the deadline to fuel speculation that they’d be “going for it,” so to speak, the reality is that the opposite is true in Utah. Next year will likely be a different story, but for now, the mission of securing the best lottery odds possible remains a clear prerogative at 20-46 and 8-2 since the All-Star break.
Utah’s -7.5 NETRTG puts the team 26th in the league, but it does operate at fifth in pace. The offense posts 117.8 PPG with the second-most assists at 29.5 and a respectable 1.899 AST/TO ratio. The Jazz are pedestrian in terms of shooting efficiency with a 46.5% FG% and 34.7% 3P%, but one bright side is that they do get to the line plenty with the seventh-most FTA. They’re also 14th in rebounding with 44.0 boards per game. While the offense is solid, those marks don’t necessarily reflect the state of the lineup with numerous players sidelined due to injury. Plus, the defense is severely lacking with a league-worst 125.0 PPG allowed along with a 57.4% opponent eFG%, also worst in the NBA.
The Jazz won’t have either of Keyonte George (hamstring) of Lauri Markkanen (hip), and Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic remain out for the remainder of the campaign. That leaves Brice Sensabaugh as the team’s leading scorer with 13.1 PPG, followed by rookie Ace Bailey with 12.5. Isaiah Collier has stood out when given opportunities with 11.4 points and 7.2 assists per contest, and big man Kyle Filipowski pitches in 10.5 points with 7.0 rebounds.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers have higher expectations than tonight’s opponent, but it’s been a pretty tough year to this point. They’re only 31-35 overall and 4-6 over their last 10 matchups. Sitting nine games back of an actual playoff spot at the six seed but 7.5 games ahead of the 11th seed, there’s plenty of wiggle room to keep them in the Play-In Tournament picture.
A -2.6 NETRTG places Portland 21st in the stat league-wide, and the group falls ninth in pace as well. The Trail Blazers are generally uninspiring in most statistical categories, producing 115.1 PPG and allowing 117.8 at the other end to opponents. They’re one of the league’s least efficient rosters with a 45.1% FG% and 33.8% 3P%, and they’re dead last in AST/TO ratio at 1.441 while dishing 24.7 per contest. Those turnovers are a massive issue as Portland paces the league by coughing the ball up 17.2 times per game, though the group is disruptive at the other end with the ninth-most turnovers for opponents. There is one area where the Blazers truly excel, which is on the glass — they bring down 45.7 per outing, good for eighth.
The injury report is mostly clear for Portland beyond Shaedon Sharpe (fibula), the team’s second-leading scorer. Deni Avdija produces a team-high 24.3 points with 6.7 assists and 6.9 rebounds in the first All-Star campaign of his career. Jerami Grant posts 19.0 PPG and Jrue Holiday contributes 16.5 points with 6.3 assists. Scoot Henderson also produces 13.2 points with 4.2 assists. Donovan Clingan has blossomed into an excellent young center with 11.8 points and 11.5 rebounds a night.
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Trail Blazers as -15.5 home favorites tonight with -1200 odds on the Moneyline. The Jazz are listed at +750 odds on the ML with the game total set at 236.5 combined points.
Both teams largely eschew defense, and while the injury report is concerning for Utah to say the least, there’s still reason to believe the over can cash. I fully expect a sloppy matchup with plenty of scoring, especially given that both teams are inside the top 10 in pace. For the Blazers, the over has gone 35-31. For the Jazz, it’s gone 38-28 on the year.
The line is high at 236.5, but that’s not much of a reason to worry given how poor both defenses are. Factor in additional possessions due to turnovers and such, and suddenly a track meet feels well within the realm of possibility. I’m comfortable taking the over here.
Top pick: Over 236.5 (-110)
