Here we go again.
The stakes are far different. The sport is different. The odds are waaaaaaaaay different. But for the third time in less than a month, Canada and the USA will face-off in a high-profile sporting event, as the two squads will meet in the quarterfinal round of the 2026 World Baseball Classic.
If you’re Canada, this probably isn’t how you initially imagined your tournament going. The Canadians had never made it into the knockout round of the WBC, yet in an evenly-matched Pool A, they were able to emerge as the one seed from the group. Two weeks ago, that seemed like it would open a pathway that didn’t involve the Americans, who were heavy favorites to win Pool B. You know what they say about the best laid plans, though…
One USA loss to Italy later, and we’ve got ourselves another clash between North American rivals.
Does Canada have any chance of repeating the magic of 2006 and pulling off an upset? Let’s preview this 8:00 p.m. ET tilt with the help of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
USA vs. Canada prediction, preview
For all the build up and media attention surrounding USA manager Mark DeRosa and his strategic mistakes against Italy, there wasn’t much of a sweat for the American team on Wednesday night. Needing a high-scoring Mexico win or simply an Italian victory to advance to the knockout stage, the USA got the latter, with Italy dominating en route to a 9-1 thrashing.
Now, the United States will turn to Logan Webb in this quarterfinal matchup with Canada. Webb really just made a single error in his first outing of the WBC against Brazil, surrendering a leadoff home run to Lucas Ramirez — the 20-year-old son of Manny Ramirez. Yet that was the lone hit that Webb would allow in that start. The right-hander is coming off arguably the best season of his career in 2025, pitching to a 3.22 ERA and a 2.60 FIP in a league-high 207.0 innings of work. Webb also saw a massive spike in his strikeout rate last year (26.2%), which always portends positive results.
However, tonight will present a slightly more difficult challenge. While Brazil’s lineup featured few bats currently even playing in affiliated ball, let alone the majors, Canada’s lineup is exclusive built around MLB talent. Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor, Tyler O’Neill and Otto Lopez are established names at this point, but it’s been super prospect Owen Caissie who’s been leading the charge for Canada throughout play in Pool A. Caissie and teammate Abraham Toro are tied for the tournament lead in hits (7), and the newest Marlins’ outfielder is slashing a cool .500/.529/.929. Caissie will need to have another massive performance if Canada has any shot of making this a competitive game.
The same can be said for Mike Soroka. In fact, Soroka will have to be both good and efficient. It feels like forever ago when the RHP was an All-Star and a Cy Young contender for the Braves in 2019, yet there were some real reasons in 2025 to be encouraged by Soroka. Despite injuries once again limiting him to 89.2 innings, Soroka cut down his walk rate (7.7%) and posted a career-high 25.1% strikeout rate. The result? How about a 3.53 xERA? Soroka is a legitimate MLB arm, in very much the same vein as Michael Lorenzen, who happened to shut down this US lineup on Tuesday. As I mentioned, though, the key for Canada will be getting length out of the 28-year-old. Because with Cade Smith and Matt Brash not on the roster, Canada’s bullpen is by far its weakest feature. The pitch limit does move from 65 to 80 in the quarterfinal round. That’s important.
Still, let’s not kid ourselves. While Canada and Italy have very comparable rosters, and you could be getting a sense of deja vu, the USA should handily win this game. It is a -900 favorite on the DraftKings Sportsbook for a reason — which is an insane, but justifiable number for a single baseball game featuring mostly major leaguers. Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt Jr. are just four of the endless names that will make-up the Americans’ batting order this evening. This is an All-Star team. Plain and simple. It’s also an All-Star team that already got caught napping and has lived to tell the tale. I don’t think it’ll waste this second crack at life.
USA vs. Canada pick, best bet
Best Bet: USA -4.5 (-125)
I think this game can stay close early on, but the Americans have feasted on weak bullpens all tournament long, and that should be no different tonight against Canada. The Canadians only chance at keeping this close is an amazing start by Soroka. However, even if they get that, there will still likely be 12 outs to cover. Remember, as the away team despite being in Houston, the USA will get to come to the plate in all nine innings. Look for this one to get sloppy late.
