Madison Square Garden is the site of the Big East Tournament Semifinals. Taking the floor as underdogs tonight will be Seton Hall (21-11, 10-10). A Pirates team firmly on the March Madness bubble can make a strong statement tonight ahead of Selection Sunday. That won’t be easy against top-seeded St. John’s (26-6, 18-2). The Red Storm opened up tournament play with a 13-point win over Providence.
St. John’s enters Friday as 8.5-point favorites (-110) over Seton Hall. The total is set at 133.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for tonight’s game between the Pirates and Red Storm.
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s prediction, preview
The Pirates have been shaped in the mold of their head coach, Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall wields the nation’s 12th-best adjusted defensive efficiency (94.4) on KenPom. That’s despite having the 25th-shortest team in college basketball according to average height. SHU has forced teams into mistakes, ranking seventh in the sport with a 21.5% turnover percentage. That level of intensity, coupled with a glacial pace on offense, often turns games into absolute slogs.
The problem for The Hall is that they have to generate buckets as well. If anyone can provide a spark on offense, it’s Adam “Budd” Clark. The 5’10” point guard makes up for his lack of height and shooting with crafty finishes inside the arc and solid playmaking. Clark currently leads the Pirates with 12.5 points and 4.8 assists per game. Wing A.J. Staton-McCray (12.0 PPG) is also capable of thriving as a scorer. Both are likely to play pivotal roles if Seton Hall manages to secure the upset tonight.
In years past, St. John’s has also opted for a more physical, slowed-down approach. That’s not the case this season; the Red Storm rank 60th in adjusted tempo on KenPom (69.8). Big East Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor has been an absolute force. Through 32 games, the center is averaging 16.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists. On the other end of the floor, he’s posted 2.0 blocks and 1.1 steals. When these teams met last weekend, Zuby dropped 21 points over 24 minutes of play.
The Johnnies are clearly the more well-rounded group, posting college basketball’s 21st-best net rating (+24.66). Their one biggest weakness is a lack of shooting, knocking in just 33.5% of all three-point attempts. Seton Hall is holding its opponents to a mediocre 32.3% clip from beyond the arc. If that level of perimeter defense shows up tonight, St. John’s will have to get creative on offense. Expect a heavy dose of Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins (13.3 PPG, 6.2 REB) and DIllon Mitchell (8.1 PPG, 6.9 REB) in the front court tonight.
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s pick, best bet
It’s tempting to go with St. John’s this evening. After all, the team has won 17 of its last 18 games. However, the Red Storm have earned single-digit wins eight different times against Big East opponents. That includes both matchups with Seton Hall. Due to their stuck in the mud offense, the Pirates will do their best to try and drag this one out against a familiar foe. While I’m still expecting a Johnnies win, this could easily go down to the wire on Friday.
