The NBA has a nice Friday-night slate on the schedule, including a doubleheader on Prime Video that starts in Big D, where the Cleveland Cavaliers roll into town to face the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are playing for a second night in a row after they knocked off the Grizzlies in Memphis on Thursday. Can they make it back-to-back wins by pulling off an upset at home against the Cavs? Let’s take a look at each side of this Friday night matchup and pinpoint some strong player prop bets to build around for this Cavs-Mavs clash.
In the bigger picture, the Cavs are heavy 13.5-point home favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the game total set at 235.5 points.
The Mavericks’ win on Thursday snapped an eight-game losing streak, as they improved to just 22-44, currently nine games out of the Play-In Tournament. The Cavaliers have been much better at 40-26 and currently have the No. 4 seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they have lost two of their last three and four of their last seven.
The Mavericks haven’t submitted an injury report yet, since they just played on Thursday, while the Cavaliers ruled out Jarrett Allen, but will have Keon Ellis and James Harden available.
Cavaliers vs. Mavericks Best Prop Bets
Donovan Mitchell u5.5 Assists (-112)
Mitchell is averaging 5.8 assists per game this season, which would seemingly indicate the over is a practical option here, but it’s important to remember that the Cavs’ roles and responsibilities changed dramatically with the addition of James Harden at the trade deadline. With Harden running the show, Mitchell’s assists have dropped a little bit over the last few weeks.
Mitchell has played 10 games with Harden and has averaged 5.3 assists in those games. His average is a little high due to a 10-assist game that went way over this prop, but he has come in under this prop line in eight of his 10 games with Harden. He had five assists against the Magic in Cleveland’s loss on Wednesday.
The other reason I like the under a lot in this matchup is that there is definitely a chance that the Mavs rest players on the second night of their back-to-back and the game turns into a blowout, resulting in fewer minutes for Mitchell and the Cavs other stars.
thu
Naji Marshall o20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-124)
If the Mavericks do rest players, Marshall could step up into a much more prominent role and smash this PRA (points, rebounds and assists) line. Marshall is averaging 22.7 PRA per game on the season, but he has come in under this prop in four straight games.
He had been in a reduced role off the bench for three games after missing the team’s first two games this month, but he returned to the starting five for each of the last two games, posting 20 PRA against the Hawks and 14 PRA against the Grizzlies on the front half of the back-to-back.
Marshall played just 23 minutes on Thursday as Khris Middleton led a fourth-quarter push for the win. He should be fresh and ready to go for Friday, and he’ll have a great chance of going over this number if Middleton, Cooper Flagg, P.J. Washington, or Daniel Gafford get the night off.
I like this prop even if everyone plays, but I love this prop if the Mavs end up resting players on the second night of their back-to-back.
Keon Ellis o8.5 Points (+101)
The Cavs have been mixing in Ellis off the bench since he arrived at the trade deadline in a deal with the Sacramento Kings. He’s only averaging 6.1 points per game this season and 7.7 points per game in his 14 games in Cleveland, but he has gone over this prop line in four of his last eight games, averaging 9.7 points per gamen.
Ellis has scored 19 and 20 points in his last two games coming off the Cleveland bench, and if the Cavs turn this game into a blowout, he could get etra opportunities and minutes.
He has been a streaky scorer and a defensive specialist throughout his career, and this seems like a good matchup to back him to stay hot and score at least nine points this Friday.
Bonus Parlay Pick: Jaylon Tyson u4.5 Rebounds (-109)
If you’re building an SGP (Same Game Parlay) from this Friday night matchup, one way to boost the odds even higher is by adding the under on Tyson’s rebounds. Adding that prop into the mix boosts the SGP all the way up to +1100 for these four Cavaliers-Mavericks bets.
Tyson is averaging 5.1 rebounds per game this season, but has come in under this prop line in seven of his last 10 games and five of his last six. Even without Jarrett Allen, Tyson had just one rebound in each of his last two contests. Tyson is extremely versatile and can fill multiple positions, but recently, he’s not been asked to pound the boards. If his role stays similar on Friday, he has a good chance to come in under this prop line once again. Even if he gets more work in a blowout, that would likely boost his scoring more than his rebounding.
