Round 1 of THE PLAYERS almost wrapped up on Thursday, even after a brief weather delay, and early on Friday, the last few players finished up. At the end of Round 1, five players sit tied for the top spot, with Maverick McNealy, Lee Hodges, Sepp Straka, Sahith Theegala, and Austin Smotherman each sitting at -5. Big names like Justin Thomas, Russell Henley, and Cameron Young are just one stroke back, and 39 players are within four strokes of the lead. The crowded and star-studded leaderboard sets up for a great Round 2, so let’s take a look at the wide variety of markets available on DraftKings Sportsbook and pinpoint some of my best bets for Round 2 of THE PLAYERS Championship.
The weather forecast for Friday looks relatively dry, with slightly stronger winds in the morning and calmer conditions in the afternoon. The course may firm up in the afternoon, though, so there may not be a strong wave advantage. In Round 1, the morning wave played the course at +1.93 strokes over par, while the afternoon wave played it at just +0.36 over par. Holes 14, 18, and the island green of No. 17 were the three hardest holes on the course, while the Par-5 hole No. 16 was the easiest. As usual, on Florida courses with unpredictable weather, I’ll stick mostly to matchups or picks that do not pit one wave against the other to avoid weather disparity.
In this post, we’ll focus on my three best bets for Round 2 on Friday, March 13, with a focus on the afternoon wave.
Round 2 – 3 Ball – Bud Cauley (+128) over Vince Whaley and Chandler Phillips
In the second group of the afternoon wave, Cauley, Whaley and Phillips tee off at 12:42 p.m. ET from hole No. 10. While this isn’t a marquee group that will be on most of the coverage, there is a huge advantage for Cauley over the other two players in this trio. These odds are shorter than most 3 balls as a result, but they’re still plus-money odds for a very solid play.
Cauley started the week with a strong round of -2, while Whaley was +5 and Phillips was +8. At the end of the round, Cauley claimed the Round 1 3-ball by a whopping seven strokes!
Cauley posted four birdies to go with two bogeys, ranking in the top 21 in the field in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green. He actually lost strokes to the field with his putter, so there’s room for a little more putting luck to go his way for an even better showing based on his shotmaking from Round 1.
Whaley had two birdies but five bogeys and a double-bogey in Round 1, while Phillips did not make a birdie, picking up six bogeys and a double-bogey.
Cauley made the cut and finished T6 at this event last year as part of his strong comeback season, and he has made the cut in four of his six events this season, including a T18 at Bay Hill last week. In contrast, Whaley has missed the cut in four of his six tournaments, and Phillips has finished T63 or worse in each of his last four events.
While a one-round sample size leads to plenty of volatility, Cauley is clearly the class of this group and has a great chance of delivering another 3-ball victory in Round 2.
Akshay Bhatia, Brooks Koepka, Tony Finau – Total Number of Birdies or Better Round 2 o12.5 (+132)
Instead of picking a winner from this trio (which I tried to do in Round 1), I’m backing the three to play well as a group on Friday, when they tee off in the afternoon wave at 1:18 p.m. ET from the first hole.
In Round 1, Bhatia had four birdies, and he finished with nine straight pars. Koepka had two birdies, and Finau would have been the one who carried this group in a prop like this one with eight birdies or better.
As a trio, they racked up 14 birdies while playing in the morning wave, which was the harder of the two waves on Thursday. They’re set up for the easier conditions on Friday in the afternoon wave, and any one of the three could get hot and carry the group like Finau did on Thursday.
Bhatia and Brooks have both shown flashes of great form before this week, and Finau looked very sharp on his way to a T10 after Round 1, ranking 15th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. Bhatia was also in the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green but his putter couldn’t get going.
In the easier conditions this afternoon, I think the three will get at least 13 birdies or better, and if you want to play this as a ladder, you can sprinkle a little on o13.5 at +220 and even o14.5 at +385.
Matchup – Round 2 – Maverick McNealy (-105) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Let’s close out my Round 2 best bets with a head-to-head between Maverick McNealy and Matt Fitzpatrick.
McNealy looked outstanding in Round 1 with six birdies and one bogey to jump to the top of the leaderboard. He did that while playing in the more difficult morning wave, while most of the rest of the top scores came later.
Fitzpatrick was three shots behind McNealy after matching Mav’s six birdies but adding in four bogeys as well. Fitzpatrick’s issues were mostly with his irons, since he ranked 85th in the field on Strokes Gained: Approach compared to McNealy’s 23rd in that category.
McNealy got his breakthrough win at the end of the 2024 season and posted 12 top-25 finishes in 26 events last year. This year, he has four top-25 finishes in six events and is coming off a T13 at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 30-year-old has slightly better form than Fitzpatrick, who has yet to miss a cut this season, but finished T41 last week at Bay Hill.
McNealy tees off at 1:42 p.m. ET, while Fitzpatrick is in the group right behind him at 1:54 p.m. ET. Both players are strong options to contend this weekend, but getting McNealy at almost even money in this head-to-head matchup is a great place to get decent value. If you take McNealy in a “3 Way” matchup, making a tie a loss instead of a push, the odds climb to +114 that he’ll have a lower score than Fitzpatrick on Friday afternoon.
