The SEC quarterfinals kick off on Friday, March 13 with Kentucky vs. Florida at 1 p.m. ET.
The Wildcats defeated No. 16 LSU and No. 8 Missouri to advance to the quarterfinals where No. 1 Florida earned a bye.
The Gators are 11.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my prediction, preview and pick for Friday’s Florida vs. Kentucky matchup.
Florida vs. Kentucky prediction, preview
There’s a few ways to look at this game. There’s the rest advantage, the momentum advantage, and the talent advantage. Florida is the No. 1 seed in the SEC Tournament and the No. 4 seed in all of college basketball. That gives them the significant talent advantage, and it helps that the Gators defeated the Wildcats twice in the regular season.
Florida won 92-83 at home and 84-77 on the road. Both games fell below this matchup’s 11.5-point spread. A third matchup seems likely to produce another quality game, especially since it’s difficult to beat a team three times. The Wildcats also have momentum heading into this game after winning the first two games of the SEC tournament.
Kentucky is the No. 9 seed in the SEC, so it didn’t earn a bye to the quarterfinals. Instead, it played No. 16 LSU and No. 8 Missouri in the first two rounds. With both wins in the books, Kentucky moves onto the most difficult matchup of the tournament against Florida. Momentum is often a major advantage in March, but the Gators have gotten plenty of rest.
Florida last played a game on March 7, which coincidentally was against Kentucky. It’s almost a full week since the Gators played, which means the rotation is rested. That said, this isn’t always an advantage—just like momentum isn’t always one either. Time off can be the downfall to a team, especially when another team is coming in hot. On the other hand, a hot team could hit a wall due to fatigue.
Florida vs. Kentucky pick, best bet
March Madness has never been about the best team in college hoops winning the title. It’s about who can survive the gauntlet. What teams are ready for a deep postseason run? What teams can get hot at the right time?
Florida has been one of the best teams all season. It’s ranked No. 4 heading into the SEC Tournament and will be a top seed in the Big Dance. It’s also defeated Kentucky twice this year. On paper, it seems likely that the Gators win again.
That said, the Wildcats are hot, having knocked off two teams thus far. That momentum should be enough to create a tense matchup, but it likely won’t be enough to win them the game.
