The AAC Tournament rolls on this afternoon with a 5 vs. 4 seed showdown. Charlotte (16-16, 9-9) is all about limiting points, opting for a slowed down, grind-it-out style of play. That’s a far cry from UAB (20-11, 11-7), a school that loves to push the pace. That gives college basketball fans an intriguing clash between polar opposites on Friday. Can the Blazers advance in front of a friendly Birmingham crowd?
UAB enters today as 5.5-point favorites (-110) over Charlotte. The total is set at 145.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Friday’s game between the 49ers and Blazers.
Charlotte vs. UAB prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the 49ers prefer low-scoring, ugly matchups, forcing other teams to play their brand of basketball. Their offense has recorded a 63.3 adjusted tempo this season, 16th-slowest in the nation per KenPom. Unsurprisingly, this group can struggle to surpass 70 points on any given night. The thing is, Charlotte isn’t very good at stopping opponents according to the advanced metrics. A 114.4 adjusted defensive efficiency is 282nd out of 365 Division I programs. An inability to force turnovers, along with a lack of contested shots, have been major issues.
If the 49ers are going to earn a tournament win, they’ll need some stars to step up. Ben Bradford (13.4 PPG) and Dezayne Mingo (12.0 PPG) have done most of the team’s heavy lifting on offense. However, head coach Aaron Fearne likes to utilize a deep rotation. 11 different players are currently averaging at least 10.0 minutes per game. It’s a decent group when it comes to shooting, ranking 87th in college basketball with a 53.4% effective field goal percentage. Charlotte also possesses plenty of size, including 7’2″ center Anton Bonke. If there’s a knock on this crew, it’s a lack of reliable playmakers. Mingo is the only member of the roster averaging more than 1.6 assists per game.
UAB is all about speed, operating at college basketball’s 90th-quickest adjusted tempo (69.0). Leading the way is Chance Westry, who paces the team with 15.7 points per game along with 3.9 rebounds and 5.2 assists. However, four others are putting up double-digit points per game, as well. As a result, the Blazers wield the AAC’s third-highest scoring offense. The best trait for this squad is ball control. They lead the entire sport with a minuscule 4.4% non-steal turnover percentage. A notable downside however is an inability to shoot. UAB is knocking down just 28.0% of its three-point attempts, third-worst in the nation.
In many ways, the Blazers are the reverse of Charlotte. Their defense is actually underrated, due in part to play style. Per KenPom, UAB has notched an adjusted defensive efficiency of 105.9, fifth-best in the 13-team American Athletic Conference. In eight of its 18 conference matchups, the school has held opponents to 70 points or fewer. The Blazers are decent on the glass, recording college basketball’s 83rd-best total rebounding percentage (52.0%). In comparison, Charlotte is 113th in that category (51.3%).
Charlotte vs. UAB pick, best bet
It’s easy to assume the Blazers will pull away in this one. After all, they have the best player on the floor in Westry and a Birmingham crowd cheering them on. With that being said, a glaring lack of success from beyond the arc looms large. Charlotte, a bigger, slower (and better shooting) team, will do its best to muck things up and keep any deficit within reason. When these teams met on March 4th, UAB eked out a six-point win. With the stakes raised in the AAC Tournament, I’m expecting the 49ers to put forward another solid effort.
