The Indian Wells Open is on to the semifinals. The first semifinal features World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka against World No. 14 Linda Noskova. The match begins at 7 p.m. ET.
Sabalenka is -720 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while Noskova is a +534 underdog. This is my best bet to target for the Sabalenka vs. Noskova match.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova Preview
Linda Noskova is looking for the biggest win of her young career. The 21-year-old has made one WTA 1000 final before, losing the China Open final last year. Defeating the No. 1 player in the world to get to a second WTA 1000 final — at one of the biggest non-major venues in the sport — would be remarkable. Noskova has had a relatively easy path to this semifinal, not having to beat any player in the top 30, which is a cause for concern when taking on a player at Sabalenka’s level. It could be a real shock to Noskova to take on such a high-level talent. However, Noskova has a handful of top-10 wins already in her young career, defeating former No. 2 Ons Jabeur, No. 5 Jessica Pegula and No. 1 Iga Swiatek over the last couple of years. Noskova is capable of beating high-level talent, but this will be the biggest test of her career.
Aryna Sabalenka has been the best player in the world over the last several years. However, the Indian Wells title has always eluded her. Sabalenka has made two of the past three finals at Indian Wells, but has never won the title. This would make three out of four years with a trip to the Indian Wells final. Sabalenka has a history of struggling in finals, losing three of the past four major finals that she has participated in. However, against inferior competition in a semifinal like this, Sabalenka has traditionally been dominant. Sabalenka has cruised through this tournament so far, not dropping a single set through four matches.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova Pick, Best Bet
My best bet for this match is the under 20.5 games between Aryna Sabalenka and Linda Noskova, with the expectation that the former will dominate.
Sabalenka should take care of business in two sets and dominate at least one of those sets. She has yet to drop a set in this tournament, and Noskova doesn’t seem like the one to shift that trend.
These two have only played each other once before: Sabalenka defeated Noskova at the 2023 Adelaide Open final in two sets. Sabalenka is so hard to beat when she’s in a rhythm, her only real weakness being her mental game. She can get frustrated and beat herself at times.
However, Sabalenka has been so sharp throughout this tournament that she should keep that momentum rolling. Sabalenka should win this one in dominant fashion, falling below the total games line.
