Iowa State and Texas Tech arrive in Kansas City tied at 12-6 in the Big 12, but they do not feel tied right now. Texas Tech is the No. 4 seed because it won the head-to-head in Ames on Feb. 28. Iowa State is the No. 5 seed and already has a game on this floor after turning Wednesday into a public execution, beating Arizona State 91-42 for the largest margin in Big 12 Tournament history. That matters in a quarterfinal like this. One team is merely stepping into the arena. The other has already been moving through its air. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders and the Iowa State Cyclones.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction, preview
Iowa State’s edge is showing up in the most repeatable places. Over the last five games, the Cyclones are averaging 76.4 points scored and 64.2 allowed. Texas Tech, over its last five, is at 80.6 scored and 73.6 allowed, but that stretch also ends with back-to-back losses to TCU and BYU after the win in Ames. Iowa State’s pressure is live right now too: Arizona State turned it over 23 times in Wednesday’s blowout after coughing it up 23 times again in the regular-season finale. Texas Tech can absolutely make this game pretty from the perimeter, but Iowa State’s current version is dragging opponents into uglier possessions at exactly the right time.
The player layer is much cleaner for Iowa State when the lens is strictly recent. Joshua Jefferson, Iowa State’s 6-foot-9 senior forward, has averaged 18.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 2.8 steals across his last five, and that run includes 22 against Texas Tech and 20 points, 12 rebounds on Wednesday. Milan Momcilovic, the 6-foot-8 junior sniper, has averaged 15.2 points over that same five-game stretch while hitting 18 of 39 from deep, 46.2%, with 20 against Texas Tech and 21 against Arizona State. Then there is Tamin Lipsey, Iowa State’s senior lead guard, who has put up 12.8 points, 4.2 assists, and 2.4 steals over his last five, including a six-steal wrecking job in the March 7 Arizona State game. That is the recent-form Iowa State case in one sentence: Jefferson is driving force, Momcilovic is spacing the floor at a premium clip, and Lipsey is making every clean look feel expensive.
Texas Tech still has enough offense to scare this ticket, but the shape of that offense is exactly why I trust Iowa State more. Christian Anderson, Texas Tech’s 6-foot-3 sophomore point guard, has averaged 19.8 points and 8.0 assists over his last four, with 31 against Cincinnati and 23 and 9 at BYU. Donovan Atwell, the 6-foot-5 senior wing, has averaged 18.0 points in that same four-game stretch and has drilled 21 of 45 from three, including 6-of-10 against Iowa State and 6-of-13 at BYU. That is real firepower. But it is also revealing that Tech still lost its final two regular-season games even with Anderson and Atwell combining for 30 against TCU and 46 against BYU. LeJuan Watts, the 6-foot-6 junior forward who helps balance the lineup, is at just 7.3 points over those last four. Right now the Red Raiders feel more dependent on two guards staying hot than Iowa State does on any single scoring lane.
Iowa State vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
Texas Tech already won this matchup 82-73 in Ames, led 45-29 at the half, shot 31-of-53 from the field, and hit 14-of-29 from three. It also has real big-game blood on its pedigree, with wins over Duke, Houston, Arizona, and Iowa State and a 4-2 mark against top-10 teams this season. But the first meeting also reads like a warning label for the Texas Tech side: Iowa State got Jefferson’s 22, Momcilovic’s 20, and a 27-11 edge in free-throw attempts, and Tech still needed a nuclear shooting script to control the game. That can happen again. It just asks for a thinner, more volatile path than Iowa State needs here. Iowa State’s path is pressure, deflections, and a game that gets heavier every four-minute stretch. Texas Tech’s path is keeping the ball spotless and keeping the threes warm enough to hold off that pressure for forty minutes. On a neutral where Iowa State already looks comfortable, that is a hard script to trust twice.
The best bet is Iowa State -5.5. The line has moved from -4.5 to -5.5, and the move makes sense: Iowa State is the team in better tournament rhythm, with the better current defensive form and the more stable recent player ecosystem. The way it dies is obvious—Anderson and Atwell turn this into another three-point barrage and keep the turnover count low enough that Iowa State never gets the game fully on its terms. But the stronger read is that Iowa State’s recent version is simply more bankable in this setting.
Play Iowa State -5.5, playable to -6.5. Final score: Iowa State 76, Texas Tech 68.
Best bet: Iowa State -5.5 (-115) vs. Texas Tech
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