The Atlantic 10 Tournament rolls on this afternoon in Pittsburgh, PA. Taking the court for a 2:00 p.m. ET tip-off will be #13 seed St. Bonaventure (16-16, 4-14). It’s been a rough season for the Bonnies, but a 99-80 win over La Salle should raise their confidence going into this one. On the other side, it’ll be #5 George Mason (23-8, 11-7). The Patriots are looking to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over 15 years.
George Mason enters today as 3.5-point favorites (-110) over St. Bonaventure. The total is set at 143.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Here’s a college basketball pick, preview and prediction for Thursday’s game between the Bonnies and Patriots.
St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason prediction, preview
A typically solid St. Bonaventure program has hit a speed bump this season. Per KenPom, this group ranks 146th in the nation with a +1.54 net rating. That’s the fifth-worst mark among all 14 A-10 schools, as well. Both sides of the ball have been inconsistent at best, but the biggest issues have come on defense. The Bonnies are 290th in opponent effective field goal percentage (53.7%). Part of the issue for this group is their size. According to KenPom, St. Bonaventure’s average height (76.5″) is 314th in college basketball. Unsurprisingly, teams are getting to the rim with ease.
If there’s one thing the Bonnies excel at, it’s shooting the ball. They’ve delivered a 38.1% three-point percentage, 19th-best in the sport. Guard Daryl Simmons II leads the team in scoring (16.5 PPG) on stellar 44/42/89 shooting splits. Forward Frank Mitchell isn’t far behind offensively (16.4 PPG), while leading the conference with 10.4 rebounds per game. The knock on this group is their depth. Head coach Mark Schmidt has just five players putting up more than 5.0 points per game. It’s no coincidence that Simmons leads all Atlantic 10 players with 35.4 minutes per game.
For George Mason, this is a chance to assert itself as a contender for this tournament. While St. Louis and VCU are the conference heavyweights, don’t sleep on this squad. The Patriots are a physical, gritty team that can give anyone fits. Opponents are averaging just 67.6 points per game against them, 36th-lowest in the nation. That’s due in large part to a glacial 63.3 adjusted tempo, 350th out of 365 Division I schools. GMU has also done a stellar job at limiting three-pointers. That could prove to be a difference-maker against the sharpshooting Bonnies.
With all that being said, the Patriots have struggled in recent weeks. They’ve gone 3-6 over their last nine games. However, they did close out the season with an 86-57 victory over St. Louis. To break out of this funk, a big-time performance might be needed from the team’s star players. Kory Mincy (14.3 PPG, 3.4 REB) and Riley Allenspach (13.8 PPG, 6.0 REB) will likely carry this offense. It’s worth nothing that guard Jermahri Hill (ankle) is questionable to take the court.
St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason pick, best bet
Despite their impressive win over La Salle, it’s difficult to fully trust St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies are heavily dependent on the three-pointer, due in part to their lack of height. That can work vs. conference cellar-dwellers, but the same approach could backfire against better defenses. George Mason, filled with perimeter stoppers, looks like a bad matchup. The bigger, more talented Patriots should open up the A-10 tournament with a win on Thursday.
