Purdue vs. Northwestern College Basketball prediction, preview
Purdue was a massive letdown this season, opening the year as the preseason No. 1 overall, and landing in the 7-seed in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers continued to be ranked among the top-10 in the country into mid-January, but the wheels came off and the struggles continued all the way into March.
Since January 20th, Purdue has a 6-7 losing record, and has lost four of its last six overall. During the 13-game span on playing under .500, six of the seven losses were as the betting favorite. You can frame it anyway you’d like, there are plenty of ways to say that Purdue is playing awful basketball for at least two months now. Since January 7th, the Boilermakers are a pathetic 4-13 ATS in Big Ten play.
Just eight days ago, Purdue traveled to Northwestern and went off as a 10.5-point favorite. The Wildcats had Purdue on the ropes the entire game, and probably should have won. Ultimately, the Boilermakers won by four points in a late desperation comeback, but never threatened to cover for 40 minutes.
Purdue does have the rest advantage here, but you can also argue Northwestern has momentum. The Wildcats have won two games in two days, playing essentially at home with the Big Ten Tournament being played at the United Center in Chicago. Northwestern has been solid as an underdog this season, going 10-5-1 ATS, including an outright upset of Indiana on Wednesday.
This is kind of a “throw the metrics out the window” type of game for me, with the analytics still buying into Purdue being elite. Purdue is not elite, in fact, I’d argue it is flawed. Give me the hot team playing at home and catching a ton of points.
