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Providence Friars vs. St. John’s Red Storm prediction, pick for Big East Tournament on Thursday 3/12/26

Providence Friars vs. St. John’s Red Storm prediction, pick for Big East Tournament on Thursday 3/12/26

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By: Cooper Albers

The air crackled inside Madison Square Garden as Providence rallied for a 91–81 victory over Butler in the first round of the Big East Tournament on Wednesday. With the win, the Friars earned a date with the hometown favorite, reigning conference champion, and No. 13-ranked St. John’s Red Storm in Thursday’s quarterfinal.

St. John’s (25–6, 18–2 Big East) lorded over the conference for much of the season — but suffered a stunning upset against Providence (15–17, 7–13 Big East) at the Mecca in January. The Johnnies got even on Valentine’s Day, setting the stage for a highly anticipated trilogy bout at the World’s Most Famous Arena.   

Tipoff is set for 12 p.m. ET. St. John’s enters as a 10.5-point favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the game total is set at 160.5 points.


Providence vs. St. John’s Preview

Providence Friars Preview

While head coach Kim English will be fired after this season, he and his squad are looking to go out with a bang. Providence got the ball rolling with a double-digit win over Butler in Wednesday’s opening round matchup — where not one, not two, but three Friars scored 20 points or more to overcome an early 16-point deficit. Leading the charge was freshman sharpshooter Stefan Vaaks, who piled up 28 points and drilled eight threes, matching a Big East Tournament record.

The Friars hope to ride that momentum into another rematch with mighty St. John’s, which they conquered in the same iconic venue in January. They’ll lean on their high-octane offense, ranked 18th nationally in scoring, and their conference-best rebounding — while hoping their dreadful defense, which allows the seventh-most points in the country, can keep the Johnnies at bay.

Big East leading scorer Jaylin Sellers struggled in each of his previous matchups with the Red Storm this season, but he’s dropped at least 20 points in five of his last six games. The senior guard — a UCF transfer — is a dangerous perimeter threat, trailing only teammate Vaaks for the conference’s most threes per game. 

However, the Friars could be missing a central figure in Thursday’s matchup: second-leading scorer Jason Edwards missed the Butler game with an undisclosed injury, and his status moving forward is uncertain.

St. John’s Red Storm Preview

Last season, St. John’s captured the Big East title for the first time in 25 years. Now, it’s shooting for a much swifter turnaround. 

Rick Pitino’s Red Storm enters the postseason as the Big East’s regular-season champion for the second straight year — boasting the conference’s top player for the second straight year, as well. 

Following in the footsteps of RJ Luis Jr., star forward Zuby Ejiofor was named the Big East Player of the Year in unanimous fashion. The senior — who leads the Johnnies with 16 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and two blocks per game — also took home the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year and Scholar-Athlete of the Year honors. 

Throughout the season, Ejiofor was flanked by former Providence standout Bryce Hopkins, who averaged 13.3 points and six rebounds per contest in his first season with St. John’s. After a pair of lackluster performances against his alma mater, the senior forward will look to meet the moment when it matters most. 

While the Johnnies feature a dynamic offense capable of putting up points in a hurry, their true superpower lies on the other end of the floor. The Red Storm ranks 14th nationally in KenPom’s defensive rating and forces the second-most turnovers in the Big East. St. John’s trails only Providence in the conference’s rebounding department and sits 21st in the country on the offensive glass. 

Providence vs. St. John’s Pick, Best Bet

Matchups like this are what make the Big East Tournament so special. David meets Goliath for a decisive clash on Goliath’s home turf — which just so happens to be the most electrifying arena ever assembled. 

While St. John’s may have stumbled in the first meeting at Madison Square Garden, the Red Storm has not lost on its iconic hardwood since. But the Johnnies are coming off an extended break and will have to defend home court against a resilient Friars team that has showcased its ability to defy the odds. 

Providence’s potent offense has proven a worthy adversary to the shutdown defense of St. John’s. In a high-stakes playoff environment, expect Thursday to deliver another thriller on 34th Street.

Best Bet: Providence +10.5 (-110)

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