Iowa and Ohio State get to Chicago with almost identical records and very different rhythms. Iowa is 21-11, Ohio State is 20-11, and the matchup feels like a clean stylistic argument in an 8-vs.-9 game that should be decided by possession control more than brand name. Iowa just came through Wednesday with a 75-64 win over Maryland, while Ohio State has been sitting on a double bye after closing the regular season with three straight wins. That rest edge is real, but so is Iowa’s current tournament pulse: the Hawkeyes are 4-0 on neutral floors this season, they have already beaten Ohio State once, and they walk into this round with the sharper sense of what this game needs to become. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s college basketball game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Ohio State vs. Iowa prediction, preview
Iowa is bringing the more familiar tournament shape into this game. The Hawkeyes have scored 74, 69, 68, 75, and 75 over their last five, and those numbers tell a steadier story than they look at first glance. Wednesday’s 75-64 win over Maryland felt especially important because it showed Iowa can absorb an ugly first half and still seize the game with force. The Hawkeyes went into the break down one, then ripped off a 21-0 run after halftime, shot 50.9% from the field, hit 9-of-23 from three, forced 16 turnovers into 21 points, and won the paint 36-24. Even the losses before that fit the same basic identity: a 69-71 game at Penn State, a 68-71 game against No. 3 Michigan, and a 75-84 overtime loss at No. 9 Nebraska. Ohio State’s form is louder, but also more explosive than settled. After Iowa held the Buckeyes to 57 in Iowa City, Ohio State answered with 82 against Purdue, 94 at Penn State, and 91 against Indiana. That is the real split in this bet. Iowa’s recent form points to control, physicality, and games that stay in reach. Ohio State’s recent form points to a team that has found a scoring ceiling at exactly the right time.
The player layer lands in the same place. Bennett Stirtz still feels like the most trustworthy engine on the floor, not because every recent game has been pristine, but because Iowa’s whole offense continues to breathe through his command. Over his last five, he has scored 22, 16, 21, 11, and 17, and the Maryland game was a perfect example of his value even without a huge scoring eruption: 17 points, six rebounds, eight assists, and two steals while settling Iowa after halftime. Cooper Koch is the bigger recent-form development, because he has changed the texture of Iowa’s offense. He scored 18 at Penn State, 18 at Nebraska, and 19 against Maryland, and he has hit 17 threes over his last four games with five or more makes in three of them. Tavion Banks has also given Iowa a steadier second layer, scoring 12, 12, eight, and six across his last four.
Ohio State, though, has the hotter shotmaking in the backcourt. Bruce Thornton has gone 10, 20, 18, and 25 in his last four, then followed the Iowa dud by posting 20 against Purdue, 18 with seven assists at Penn State, and 25 with seven assists against Indiana. John Mobley Jr. has been even more combustible from deep, scoring 15, 21, 28, and 18 in his last four while pouring in 13 threes across the Purdue and Penn State games. So this is not a spot where one side clearly owns the guard battle. Iowa has the steadier organizer. Ohio State has the scorching perimeter firepower.
Iowa vs. Ohio State pick, best bet
Iowa’s 74-57 win over Ohio State was resounding. The Hawkeyes won the paint 44-18, held Thornton to 10 points, and turned an early 14-2 deficit into a 35-9 closing burst to the first half. Stirtz had 22, Folgueiras had 20 and five assists, and Manyawu added 12. It was a complete proof of concept for the kind of game Iowa wants. But the more honest read comes from what happened next. Iowa stayed in its same neighborhood, playing a string of competitive, possession-heavy games and then beating Maryland in the tournament opener. Ohio State took that loss and became something more dangerous offensively, ripping off 82, 94, and 91 in its final three regular-season games, shooting 67.0% and hitting 16-of-23 from three at Penn State, then shooting 59.2% against Indiana. So the real question is not whether Iowa can point to the first meeting and call the case closed. It is whether Iowa’s current game shape—slower, stronger in the paint, more comfortable in the mud—can interrupt the hottest scoring stretch Ohio State has produced all conference season.
The intangibles feel more useful when they stay tied to what happened this week. Iowa already played a tournament game, already got hit in the mouth, and already answered with the best punch either team has thrown in Chicago so far. That matters more here than generic March language. It says Iowa has already settled into the tension of this event and already shown it can win a possession-by-possession game on short prep. Ohio State does have the fresher legs, and that is real. The Buckeyes also should have some crowd comfort in Chicago and are riding a veteran lead guard who just came off a Big Ten Player of the Week run. But Iowa’s edge is different. It looks like a team that already understands exactly what kind of afternoon this is about to become. Stirtz has been carrying playoff-level minutes for weeks, Koch is giving the offense fresh life, and the Hawkeyes have now won on a neutral floor four times this season. That starts to matter in a game this small.
Ohio State is the hotter shooting team, and that is what makes the Buckeyes dangerous in a near pick’em. But Iowa still feels like the side whose recent form is easier to trust in a noon tournament grinder. The Hawkeyes just beat Maryland 75-64, beat this same Ohio State team 74-57 two weeks ago, and even their recent losses to Penn State and Michigan lived in the exact sort of possession count and scoring band they want. Koch has given Stirtz a real running mate, Banks has been more stable around the rim, and Iowa has already shown it can drag this matchup into a paint-and-tempo fight. If we are picking a winner rather than leaning on a team-total angle,
I still want Iowa ML (-110) as my best bet. Final score: Iowa 70, Ohio State 68.
I also think this game’s market is so razor-sharp that I do like the u139.4 (-110) almost equally to Iowa ML, so I’ve parlayed both bets here in The CBB Board, the betting group where you can find DKN Analyst plays each and every day.
Best bet: Iowa (-110) vs. Ohio State
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